关键词: 外汇储备, 风险预警指数, 复杂系统管理, 信号分析法

Abstract: As an important part of financial security, foreign exchange reserves risk management is a typical complex system management issue. This paper regards foreign exchange reserves risk management as a complex system, fully considering the change and mutual influence of various macro variables in the system. On the basis, this paper proposes a risk early warning model and constructs risk warning indicators to achieve the goal of monitoring foreign exchange reserves risk. Firstly, this paper selects effective indicators based on signal analysis method, then calculates the probability of foreign exchange reserves crisis that occurs within the next 24 months, and finally forecasts foreign exchange reserves risk in the next two years based on probability value and the change trend. This paper uses the data of China and Argentina to conduct an empirical test, and the results show that the model has a better predictive ability. At present, China's foreign exchange reserves risk is low, but since 2014, the risk has shown a slow upward trend and needs real-time monitoring to avoid crisis.

Key words: foreign exchange reserves, early warning index, complex system management, signal analysis method