管理评论

›› 2020, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (5): 3-13,75.

• 经济与金融管理 •    下一篇

基于PMC指数模型的单项房地产政策量化评价研究——以我国“十三五”以来住房租赁政策为例

董纪昌, 袁铨, 尹利君, 李秀婷   

  1. 中国科学院大学经济与管理学院, 北京 100190
  • 收稿日期:2020-01-08 出版日期:2020-05-28 发布日期:2020-06-03
  • 作者简介:董纪昌,中国科学院大学经济与管理学院教授,博士生导师,博士;袁铨,中国科学院大学经济与管理学院博士研究生;尹利君,中国科学院大学经济与管理学院博士研究生;李秀婷(通讯作者),中国科学院大学经济与管理学院副教授,硕士生导师,博士。
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金应急管理项目（71850014）；国家自然科学基金重点项目（71532013）；国家自然科学基金面上项目（71573244）。

Research on Quantitative Evaluation of Single Real Estate Policy Based on PMC Index Model——Taking China's Housing Rental Policy Since the 13th Five-Year Plan as an Example

Dong Jichang, Yuan Quan, Yin Lijun, Li Xiuting   

  1. School of Economics and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190
  • Received:2020-01-08 Online:2020-05-28 Published:2020-06-03

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摘要：

本文基于2013—2019年我国中央层面出台的较为典型的220项房地产政策，采用文本分析和内容分析的方法，提取关键词频，进而综合参照已有学者对于政策指标的设定进行改进，创新性地在房地产调控政策变量中加入政策效力级别这一具有递进和排他性的一级变量，构建房地产政策的PMC指数模型，对六项样本房地产政策进行量化评价。实证结果表明：政策1和政策3的PMC指数水平较低，处于可接受水平，仍有较大的改进空间，其余四项政策均为优秀水平；专项调节政策（如税收优惠政策）涉及面较窄，PMC指数较低；国家多部委联合发布的政策，关乎民生且覆盖面较为广泛，因此PMC指数相对较高；从一级指标内部来看，政策的调控范围和政策的调控对象具有较强的相关性。

关键词: 房地产政策, 量化评价, PMC指数, 住房租赁

Abstract:

This paper adopts the methods of text analysis and content analysis to extract the frequency of key words that appear in the 220 typical real estate policies issued by the central government in 2013-2019, and then by comprehensively using an improved version of the policy indicators set by other scholars and innovatively adding a progressive and exclusive primary variable, effectiveness level, into the real estate regulation policy variables, this paper constructs a PMC index model of real estate policy to evaluate the sample real estate policies. The results of empirical research show that: the PMC index levels of policy 1 and policy 3 are low but acceptable with much room for improvement and the other four policies are excellent; the special adjustment policies (such as preferential tax policies) are narrow in coverage, and the PMC index is low; the policies jointly issued by multiple ministries and commissions are related to people’s livelihood and have a wide coverage, so the PMC index is relatively high; from the internal perspective of the first level indicators, there is a strong correlation between the regulatory scope of policies and the regulatory object of policies.

Key words: real estate policy, quantitative evaluation, PMC index, housing rental