服务与需求的匹配度对客户流失的影响研究：基于电信行业的客户数据实验

›› 2020, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (5): 192-204.

服务与需求的匹配度对客户流失的影响研究：基于电信行业的客户数据实验

李季¹, 张帅², 周静³

1. 中央财经大学商学院, 北京 100081;
2. 北京第二外国语学院商学院, 北京 100024;
3. 中国人民大学统计学院, 北京 100872

收稿日期:2017-08-14 出版日期:2020-05-28 发布日期:2020-06-03
作者简介:李季,中央财经大学商学院教授,博士生导师,博士;张帅(通讯作者),北京第二外国语学院商学院讲师,博士;周静,中国人民大学统计学院助理教授,博士。
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金青年项目（71972196；91646125；71702185）；教育部人文社会科学基金项目（18YJA630051）。

The Impact of Matching between Service and Demand on Customer Churn: Evidence from Telecommunication Industry

Li Ji¹, Zhang Shuai², Zhou Jing³

1. Business School, Central University of Finance and Economics, Beijing 100081;
2. Business School, Beijing International Studies University, Beijing 100024;
3. School of Statistics, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872

Received:2017-08-14 Online:2020-05-28 Published:2020-06-03

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

本文利用某移动通信公司的客户消费数据和个性化营销实验，分析了客户在使用运营商的服务过程中，服务与需求之间的匹配程度以及客户投入行为与客户流失之间的关系。实证研究发现，服务与客户需求的匹配程度和客户的投入行为影响着客户的流失。企业与客户签订服务合约，在一定时期内可以有效地降低客户流失率，在客户合约到期后，流失情况虽有所增加，但仍比无合约情况下的客户流失低。而且，通过实验发现，结合匹配度的个性化营销可以显著提升客户的忠诚度和企业绩效。本文的研究结果为企业进行客户流失分析、客户保留决策的制定以及个性化营销提供了理论指导。

关键词: 服务和需求的匹配度, 客户投入, 服务合约, 客户流失

Abstract:

In this paper, we use customers’ consumption data and personalized marketing experiment of a telecommunication company to analyze the influence of matching between service and demand, customer engagement and service contract on customer churn. The empirical study finds that the degree of matching and customer engagement both have a significant negative relationship with customer churn. The service contract between the enterprise and the customer can effectively reduce the churn rate of customers within a certain period of time. After the contract expires, the churn rate increases, but still lower than that of customers not covered by the contract. And we also find through experimentation that personalized marketing based on the matching can significantly improve customer loyalty and business performance. The results of this paper provide theoretical guidance for enterprises to analyze customer churn, make decisions on customer retention and promote personalized marketing.

Key words: matching between service and demand, customer engagement, service contracts, customer churn

李季, 张帅, 周静. 服务与需求的匹配度对客户流失的影响研究：基于电信行业的客户数据实验[J]. , 2020, 32(5): 192-204.

Li Ji, Zhang Shuai, Zhou Jing. The Impact of Matching between Service and Demand on Customer Churn: Evidence from Telecommunication Industry[J]. , 2020, 32(5): 192-204.

参考文献

[1] Rinehart M., Eckert A., Hfield B. An Assessment of Supplier-Customer Relationship[J]. Journal of Business Logistics, 2004,25(1):25-62
[2] Wei P., Chiu T. Turning Telecommunications Call Details to Churn Prediction:A Data Mining Approach[J]. Expert Systems with Applications, 2002,23(2):103-112
[3] Fitchard K. Mobile Mayhem[J]. Wireless Review, 2002,19(12):12-13
[4] Kaufman C., Cohen J. Unfolding Consumer Impulsivity:An Existential-Phenomenological Study of Consumers with Attention Deficit Disorder[J]. Psychology&Marketing, 2004,21(8):637-669
[5] Thomas J., Sullivan Y. Customer Migration:An Empirical Investigation Across Multiple Channels[R]. University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, College of Business, Working Paper 04-0112, 2004
[6] Ahn H., Han P., Lee S. Customer Churn Analysis:Churn Determinants and Mediation Effects of Partial Defection in the Korean mobile Telecommunications Service Industry[J]. Telecommunications Policy, 2006,30(10):552-568
[7] Fornell C., Wernerfelt B. Defensive Marketing Strategy by Customer Complaint Management:A Theoretical Analysis[J]. Journal of Marketing Research, 1987,20(4):337-346
[8] Zeithaml A., Leonard B., Ananthanarayanan P. The Behavioral Consequences of Service Quality[J]. Journal of Marketing, 1996,60(2):31-46
[9] Verhoef C. Understanding the Effect of Customer Relationship Management Efforts on Customer Retention and Customer Share Development[J]. Journal of Marketing, 2003,67(4):30-45
[10] Reinartz J., Kumar V. The Impact of Customer Relationship Characteristics on Profitable Lifetime Duration[J]. Journal of Marketing, 2003,67(1):77-99
[11] Ganesh J., Arnold J., Reynolds E. Understanding the Customer Base of Service Providers:An Examination of the Differences Between Switchers and Stayers[J]. Journal of Marketing, 2000,64(3):65-87
[12] Jamal Z., Bucklin E. Improving the Diagnosis and Prediction of Customer Churn:A Heterogeneous Hazard Modeling Approach[J]. Journal of Interactive Marketing, 2006,20(3):16-29
[13] Sun H., Li B. Learning and Acting on Customer Information:A Simulation-Based Demonstration on Service Allocations with Offshore Centers[J]. Journal of Marketing Research, 2011,48(1):72-86
[14] Stahl F., Heitmann M., Lehmann R. The Impact of Brand Equity on Customer Acquisition, Retention and Porfit Margin[J]. Journal of Marketing, 2012,76(4):44-63
[15] Schweidel A., Peter F., Eric B. Understanding Service Retention within Across Cohorts Using Limited Information[J]. Journal of Marketing, 2008,72(1):82-94
[16] Michael L. The Influence of Loyalty Programs and Short-Term Promotions on Customer Retention[J]. Journal of Marketing Research, 2004,41(3):281-292
[17] Bolton N., Kannan K., Bramlett D. Implications of Loyalty Program Membership and Service Experiences For Customer Retention and Value[J]. Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, 2000,28(1):95-108
[18] 周飞,冉茂刚,沙振权.多渠道整合对跨渠道顾客保留行为的影响机制研究[J].管理评论, 2017,29(3):176-185
[19] Lee B., Kim J., Lee G. Predicting Customer Churn in Mobile Industry Using Data Mining Technology[J]. Industrial Management&Data Systems, 2017,117(1):90-109
[20] Coussement K., Lessmann S., Verstraeten G. A Comparative Analysis of Data Preparation Algorithms for Customer Churn Prediction:A Case Study in the Telecommunication Industry[J]. Decision Support Systems, 2016,95(11):27-36
[21] Asamoah A., Sharda R., Kalgotra P. Who Renews?Who Leaves?Identifying Customer Churn in a Telecom Company Using Big Data Techniques[J]. Journal of Information Systems Education, 2016,27(4):223-232
[22] Holtrop N., Wieringa E., Gijsenberg J. No Future Without the Past?Predicting Churn in the Face of Customer Privacy[J]. International Journal of Research in Marketing, 2016,34(11):154-172
[23] Verbeke W., Martens D., Baesens B. Social Network Analysis for Customer Churn Prediction[J]. Applied Soft Computing, 2014,14(1):431-446
[24] Huang B., Kechadi M. T., Buckley B. Customer Churn Prediction in Telecommunications[J]. Expert Systems with Applications, 2012,39(1):1414-1425
[25] Kisioglu P., Topcu I. Applying Bayesian Belief Network Approach to Customer Churn Analysis:A Case Study on the Telecom Industry of Turkey[J]. Expert Systems with Applications, 2011,38(6):7151-7157
[26] Dierkes T., Bichler M., Krishnan R. Estimating the Effect of Word of Mouth on Churn and Cross-Buying in the Mobile Phone Market with Markov Logic Networks[J]. Decision Support Systems, 2011,51(3):361-371
[27] 邓森文,马溪骏.基于Cox模型的移动通信行业中低端客户流失预测研究[J].合肥工业大学学报(自然科学版), 2010,33(11):1698-1701
[28] 顾光同,王力宾,费宇.电信客户流失预警规则及其信度测定实证研究[J].云南财经大学学报, 2010,26(6):94-98
[29] Hwang H., Jung T., Suh E. An LTV Model and Customer Segmentation Based on Customer Value:A Case Study on the Wireless Telecommunication Industry[J]. Expert Systems with Applications, 2004,26(2):181-188
[30] Anderson W., Sullivan W. The Antecedents and Consequences of Customer Satisfaction for Firms[J]. Marketing Science, 1993,12(2):125-143
[31] Hallowell R., Schlesinger A., Zornitsky J. Internal Service Quality, Customer and Job Satisfaction:Linkages and Implications for Management[J]. Human Resource Planning, 1996,19(2):20-31
[32] Kon M. Customer Churn:Stop It Before It Starts[J]. Mercer Management Journal, 2004,17(6):54-60
[33] Mitani T., Koji R. CRM Pursues Economies of Depth[J]. Japanese Journal of Diamond Harvard Business, 1999,6-7:26-40
[34] 胡左浩,郑兆红.顾客生涯价值概念及其对CRM的启示[J].外国经济与管理, 2001,23(4):43-48
[35] Keaveney M., Parthasarathy M. Customer Switching Behavior in Online Services:An Exploratory Study of the Role of Selected Attitudinal, Behavioral, and Demographic Factors[J]. Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, 2001,29(4):374-390
[36] Kreitter D. Controlling ISP Churn:Borrowing from the Telco Model[J]. Telecommunications-Americas Edition, 2000,34(11):73-74
[37] Kleinman M. Argos launches Store Card to Take on Rivals[J]. Marketing, 2000,19(10):19-20
[38] Verton D. Churn[J]. Computerworld, 2001,35(6):50-52
[39] Dabholkar A. How to Improve Perceived Service Quality by Increasing Customer Participation[J]. Developments in Marketing Science, 1990,13(12):483-487
[40] Rebecca J., Gwinner P., Su W. The Impact of Customer Participation and Service Expectation on Locus Attributions Following Service Failure[J]. International Journal of Service Industry Management, 2004,15(1):7-26
[41] Binks M., Ennew C., Mowlah A. The Relationship between Private Businesses and Their Banks[J]. International Journal of Bank Marketing, 2006,24(5):346-355
[42] Bendapudi N., Berry L. Health Care:A Fertile Field for Service Research[J]. Journal of Service Research, 2007,10(2):111-122
[43] Gerpott T., Ahmadi N., Weimar D. Who Is (Not) Convinced to Withdraw a Contract Termination Announcement?——A Discriminant Analysis of Mobile Communications Customers in Germany[J]. Telecommunications Policy, 2015,39(1):38-52
[44] Wangenheim F., Wünderlich N., Schumann J. Renew or Cancel?Drivers of Customer Renewal Decisions for IT-Based Service Contracts[J]. Journal of Business Research, 2017,79(7):181-188
[45] Kim H. The Churn Analysis and Determinants of Customer Loyalty in Korean Mobile Phone Market[J]. Korean Information Society Review, 2000,27(1):1-18