黄河流域交通运输碳排放的影响因素分解与情景预测

管理评论 ›› 2020, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (12): 283-294.

黄河流域交通运输碳排放的影响因素分解与情景预测

张国兴^1,2, 苏钊贤¹

1. 华北水利水电大学管理与经济学院, 郑州 450046;
2. 华北水利水电大学黄河流域生态经济系统可持续发展研究中心, 郑州 450046

收稿日期:2020-06-16 出版日期:2020-12-28 发布日期:2020-12-30
通讯作者: 苏钊贤(通讯作者),华北水利水电大学管理与经济学院博士研究生
作者简介:张国兴,华北水利水电大学管理与经济学院教授,黄河流域生态经济系统可持续发展研究中心主任,博士生导师,博士。
基金资助:
国家社会科学基金项目（15BJL034）；华北水利水电大学黄河流域生态经济系统可持续发展研究社科团队项目。

Analysis of Influencing Factors and Scenario Prediction of Transportation Carbon Emissions in the Yellow River Basin

Zhang Guoxing^1,2, Su Zhaoxian¹

1. School of Management and Economics, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou 450046;
2. The Research Center for the Sustainable Development of Eco-Economic System in Yellow River Basin, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou 450046

Received:2020-06-16 Online:2020-12-28 Published:2020-12-30

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 协调黄河流域交通能源消耗与碳排放间关系，是具有重要时效性和紧迫性的问题。为探讨区域交通碳排放影响因素和趋势，本文运用LMDI法对各项驱动因素进行分解，构建扩展STIRPAT模型预测不同情景下碳排放趋势。结果表明：1998-2017年区域交通运输碳排放呈现"持续上升-快速下降-波动上升"趋势；人均GDP和人口规模对碳排放起促进作用，交通运输强度、单位周转量能耗和交通能源强度对碳排放增长起抑制作用；不同情景下交通运输碳排放存在明显差异，保持人口低增长、经济水平高增长和技术水平高增长情景可能最符合未来发展趋势。因此，优化产业结构、加快新能源汽车推广和改进交通运输标准化等应当作为未来流域交通运输碳减排的主要路径。

关键词: 黄河流域, 交通运输碳排放, LMDI, STIRPAT, 岭回归

Abstract: Coordinating the relationship between transportation energy consumption and carbon emissions in the Yellow River Basin is a highly time-sensitive and urgent issue. In order to explore the influencing factors and trends of regional transportation carbon emissions, the study introduces method to decompose the influencing factors, and establishes the extended STIRPAT model to predict the carbon emission trend under different scenarios. The results show:1) during the period from 1998 to 2017, the carbon emissions of regional transportation experience changes from continuous rise to rapid decline to wavelike rise; the growth of per capita GDP and population in the Yellow River Basin promotes transportation carbon emissions, and the decrease of transportation intensity, transportation energy intensity and energy consumption per unit turnover volume inhibits the growth of carbon emissions; there are significant differences in transportation carbon emissions under different scenarios, and maintaining low population growth, high economic growth and high technological level are probably consistent with the future development trend. Therefore, optimizing the industrial structure, accelerating the promotion of new energy vehicles and improving transportation standardization should be the main paths to reduce the regional transportation carbon emissions in the future.

Key words: Yellow River Basin, transportation carbon emissions, LMDI, STIRPAT, ridge regression

张国兴, 苏钊贤. 黄河流域交通运输碳排放的影响因素分解与情景预测[J]. 管理评论, 2020, 32(12): 283-294.

Zhang Guoxing, Su Zhaoxian. Analysis of Influencing Factors and Scenario Prediction of Transportation Carbon Emissions in the Yellow River Basin[J]. Management Review, 2020, 32(12): 283-294.

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