生产分割、区域间贸易与CO2排放:基于IRIO模型的研究

›› 2018, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (5): 47-57.

• 投入占用产出技术及其应用 • 上一篇下一篇

生产分割、区域间贸易与CO₂排放:基于IRIO模型的研究

赵忠秀¹, 闫云凤², 裴建锁¹

1. 对外经济贸易大学国际经济贸易学院, 北京 100029;
2. 首都经济贸易大学经济学院, 北京 10007

收稿日期:2016-06-22 出版日期:2018-05-28 发布日期:2018-05-29
通讯作者: 裴建锁(通讯作者),对外经济贸易大学国际经济贸易学院副教授,博士生导师,博士。
作者简介:赵忠秀,对外经济贸易大学国际经济贸易学院教授,博士生导师,博士;闫云凤,首都经济贸易大学经济学院副教授,博士
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目（41675139；71573180；71433002）；对外经济贸易大学杰出青年学者资助项目（17JQ11）。

Production Fragmentation, Interregional Trade and CO₂ Emissions:An IRIO Model Approach

Zhao Zhongxiu¹, Yan Yunfeng², Pei Jiansuo¹

1. School of International Trade and Economics, University of International Business and Economics, Beijing 100029;
2. School of Economics, Capital University of Economics and Business, Beijing 100070

Received:2016-06-22 Online:2018-05-28 Published:2018-05-29

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

当前,国际生产分割快速发展,传统的生产者责任污染排放核算面临挑战,消费者责任核算受到越来越多的关注。实际上,一国内部地区间的生产分割程度较之国际更高,地区间贸易隐含碳研究却相对较少。数据可得性较差是最重要的原因之一。本文利用半官方的区域间投入产出表,辅以海关数据,调整加工贸易影响;并基于改进的区域间投入产出模型,研究了生产分割下地区间贸易隐含碳排放。进而,提出拓展的"碳排放要素"HOV模型,预测隐含碳的净流向。模型证实,各区域"生产碳排放"与"消费碳排放"之差,等于各区域"隐含碳净流量",生产碳排放可由消费碳排放与隐含碳净流出加总得到。实证结果显示:京津区域、东部沿海区域等经济发达区域的消费碳排放大于生产碳排放,它们是隐含碳净流入地区;而东北区域、西南区域等地区是隐含碳净流出地区,即地区发展中高排放产业转移造成的污染转移多从经济发达地区向欠发达地区转移,表明地区间碳排放转移差异巨大,这增加了碳排放交易的难度和不确定性。2002年和2007年"碳排放要素"HOV模型的预测成功率分别为75%和89%,该结果与以往对于国家层面研究相比,理论与实证相符程度更高,说明一国内部各区域更接近HOV模型的经典假设。对各区域碳排放影响因素的分解结果显示,多数地区的资本形成是消费碳排放的主因,这从侧面反映了我国投资驱动型的经济增长模式。通过对2002年和2007年两个时点的比较发现,各地区的消费碳排放本地市场效应明显,但随着时间在逐步减弱,意味着地区环境政策的有效性需要考虑区际贸易。本文最后提出了相应的政策建议。

关键词: 生产分割, 区域间投入产出模型, 贸易隐含碳, 生产者责任, 消费者责任

Abstract:

International production fragmentation sees rapid growth, which challenges production-based pollution accounting principles. The consumption-based accounting principles receive more and more recognition. In fact, production fragmentation is even more pro-nounced at interregional level than at international level. However, studies investigating carbon emissions embodied in interregional trade are relatively lacking. One of the main constraints is the availability of data. This paper applies newly constructed inter-regional input-out-put (IRIO) tables, complemented by customs data to adjust the processing trade. By employing the IRIO model, the effects of interre-gional trade on regional CO₂ emissions are studied. Moreover, we introduce an extended HOV model with environment factors, which gives prediction for the direction of regional net pollution flows. The model demonstrates that regional "net carbon flow" equals to the difference between regional production-based carbon emissions and consumption-based carbon emissions, and the production-based carbon emissions can be obtained by adding consumption-based carbon emissions and net carbon inflows. Empirically, we show that, Northern Municipalities and East Coast-developed regions-are net carbon inflow regions, meaning that these regions have more consump-tion-based pollution than production-based pollution. In contrast, Northeast and Southwest are regions that have net carbon outflows, meaning pollution intensive industries were transferred from economically developed areas to less-developed areas. Our results show that regional pollution transfers via interregional trade are sizeable, which pose uncertainties to the efforts of establishing carbon rights trading system. The theoretical HOV model could explain 75% and 89% of the facts in 2002 and 2007 respectively, which is higher than previ-ous national research, showing the trans-regional trade within a country is closer to HOV classical assumptions. The decomposition for driving forces shows that capital formation is the main cause of consumption-based emissions, which reflects China's investment-driven growth model. It implies that the impact of trans-regional trade should be taken into account when making region-specific environmental policy. We conclude by providing some policy implications and suggestions.

Key words: production fragmentation, inter-regional input-output (IRIO) model, carbon emissions embodied in trade, producer's re-sponsibility, consumer's responsibility

赵忠秀, 闫云凤, 裴建锁. 生产分割、区域间贸易与CO₂排放:基于IRIO模型的研究[J]. , 2018, 30(5): 47-57.

Zhao Zhongxiu, Yan Yunfeng, Pei Jiansuo. Production Fragmentation, Interregional Trade and CO₂ Emissions:An IRIO Model Approach[J]. , 2018, 30(5): 47-57.

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生产分割、区域间贸易与CO₂排放:基于IRIO模型的研究

Production Fragmentation, Interregional Trade and CO₂ Emissions:An IRIO Model Approach

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