CDM机制下的企业成长路径——基于仿真市场模型

›› 2018, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (3): 40-46.

CDM机制下的企业成长路径——基于仿真市场模型

李臻

电子科技大学中山学院, 中山 528402

收稿日期:2015-06-17 出版日期:2018-03-28 发布日期:2018-03-26
作者简介:李臻,电子科技大学中山学院讲师,博士
基金资助:
国家社会科学基金项目（16CGL057）。

A Study on the Growth Path of Companies under the Clean Development Mechanism: Based on Simulation Market

Li Zhen

Zhongshan Institute, University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, Zhongshan 528402

Received:2015-06-17 Online:2018-03-28 Published:2018-03-26

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

在诸多应对气候变化的手段中，CDM已经成为一种比较成熟的市场机制。本文通过对CDM交易过程的解析，并利用计算机仿真技术进行模拟之后发现，发达国家和发展中国家的利益分配是不均等的。考虑到税收因素，当假定参与企业的数量不变时，发达国家的企业成长速度会上升，最终趋于稳定，而发展中国家企业的增长速度会快于发达国家，后期成长速度也维持在相对较高的水平上；当假定参与交易的企业数量有条件地增加时，发达国家新进厂商较少，而发展中国家新进厂商数量却在暴增，最终在企业总规模上超过发达国家。我们从经济学的角度分析了这种利益分配不均等的交易机制，从而解释了现实中为何发达国家逐渐对CDM失去兴趣。

关键词: CDM, 低碳经济, 仿真

Abstract:

Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), as one of the ways to deal with climate change, has become a mature market mechanism. Based on the analysis of CDM transaction process and using the simulation technology, this paper finds that the interests are not equally distributed between the developed countries and the developing countries. With tax factor taken into consideration and given a fixed number of participating enterprises, the interests for developed countries will rise and then stabilize at high level while the interests for developing countries will rise faster and then stabilize at a higher level; given a conditionally increasing number of participating enterprises, the developed countries will have less new participants while the developing countries will have much more new participants until finally the total number of participants from the developing countries exceeds that from the developed countries. By analyzing the trading mechanism that causes unequal interest distribution from the perspective of economics, this paper manages to explain why the Western developed countries are gradually losing interest in CDM.

Key words: CDM, low carbon economy, simulation

李臻. CDM机制下的企业成长路径——基于仿真市场模型[J]. , 2018, 30(3): 40-46.

Li Zhen. A Study on the Growth Path of Companies under the Clean Development Mechanism: Based on Simulation Market[J]. , 2018, 30(3): 40-46.

参考文献

[1] 景跃军,刁巍杨. 东北地区一次能源消费的碳排放及低碳经济发展的路径研究[J]. 管理评论, 2010,22(8):109-113
[2] 曾胜. 中国能源消费、经济增长与能源需求预测的研究[J]. 管理评论, 2011,23(2):38-44
[3] 许广月. 碳强度俱乐部收敛性:理论与证据——兼论中国碳强度降低目标的合理性和可行性[J]. 管理评论, 2013,25(4):48-58
[4] Sohel M. S. I., Alamgir M., Akhter S., et al. Carbon Storage in a Bamboo (Bambusa Vulgaris) Plantation in the Degraded Tropical Forests:Implications for Policy Development[R]. World Bank, 2015
[5] Tang T., Popp D. The Learning Process and Technological Change in Wind Power:Evidence from China's CDM Wind Projects[R]. World Bank, 2014
[6] Sugino M., Morita M., Iwata K., et al. Multiplier Impacts and Emission Reduction Effects of Joint Crediting Mechanism:Analysis with a Japanese and International Disaggregated Input-Output Table[M]. Berkeley:Social Science Electronic Publishing Press, 2015
[7] Schepper E. D., Lizin S., Durlinger B., et al. Economic and Environmental Performances of Small-Scale Rural PV Solar Projects under the Clean Development Mechanism:The Case of Cambodia[M]. New York:Wiley Press, 2016
[8] Bryant G., Dabhi S., Bohm S. ‘Fixing’ the Climate Crisis:Capital, States, and Carbon Offsetting in India[M]. Mumbai:Environment and Planning Press, 2016
[9] 郑文,张建华. 清洁发展机制下减排技术转移的影响因素研究——基于中国CDM项目分省数据的logit模型分析[J]. 科学学研究, 2012,4(12):1818-1823
[10] 李媛媛. 中国碳保险法律制度的构建[J]. 中国人口·资源与环境, 2015,5(2):144-151
[11] 吴常艳,黄贤金,揣小伟,等. 基于EIO-LCA的江苏省产业结构调整与碳减排潜力分析[J]. 中国人口·资源与环境, 2015,9(4):43-51
[12] 张翼,王德发,郑忠良. 我国清洁发展机制(CDM)均衡化发展思考[J]. 宏观经济管理, 2015,5(1):69-72
[13] 张翼,卢现祥. 研发能力、知识产权保护与CDM中的技术转移——基于我国注册项目的实证分析[J]. 经济管理, 2011,6(5):15-22
[14] 朱智洺,何冰雁,沈天苗. 清洁发展机制(CDM)项目在中国区域分布结构——基于中国各省市面板数据的实证研究[J]. 华东经济管理, 2014,3(8):46-51
[15] 贺胜兵,周华蓉,田银华. 碳交易对企业绩效的影响——以清洁发展机制为例[J]. 中南财经政法大学学报, 2015,6(3):3-10
[16] Paul C. What Can We Learn from a Theory of Complexity[J]. Emergence, 2000,2(1):87-99
[17] Kiesling E., Gunther M., Stummer C. Agent-based Simulation of Innovation Diffusion:A Review[J]. Central European Journal of Operations Research, 2012,20(2):183-230
[18] 联合国清洁发展机制执行理事会[DB/OL]. http://cdm.unfccc.int/Statistics/Registration/
[19] Alexandre K. State and Trends of The Carbon Market[R]. World Bank, 2012