玉米金融化、价格形成机制及政策选择

›› 2018, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (11): 35-45.

玉米金融化、价格形成机制及政策选择

吴海霞¹, 葛岩², 史恒通¹

1. 陕西师范大学国际商学院, 西安 710119;
2. 中央财经大学财政税务学院, 北京 100081

收稿日期:2016-07-05 出版日期:2018-11-28 发布日期:2018-11-22
通讯作者: 葛岩,中央财经大学财政税务学院讲师,博士
作者简介:吴海霞,陕西师范大学国际商学院讲师,博士;史恒通,陕西师范大学国际商学院讲师,博士。
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金青年项目（71603153）；陕西省社科基金重点项目（2016D003）；中央高校基本科研业务经费专项资金项目（15SZYB18）。

Corn Financialization, Price Formation Mechanism and Policy Options

Wu Haixia¹, Ge Yan², Shi Hengtong¹

1. International Business School, Shanxi Normal University, Xi'an 710119;
2. School of Public Finance and Tax, Central University of Finance and Economics, Beijing 100081

Received:2016-07-05 Online:2018-11-28 Published:2018-11-22

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

日趋明显的玉米金融化和能源化趋势改变着玉米市场的价格形成机制。本文基于2004年9月-2017年7月玉米集贸市场价格月度数据，利用ARDL模型，从供求基本面、进出口贸易、行业政策及金融化因素视角对我国玉米价格形成机制进行了实证分析。结果发现，供求基本面和行业政策在玉米价格形成过程中作用显著，但金融化力量中的波罗的海干散货指数、玉米期货价格、原油价格及汇率在玉米市场定价机制中作用更加明显和直接。同时敏感性检验也验证了这一结论的稳健性。玉米价格形成机制的新变化使得国家宏观调控政策不仅要关注供求等基本面的变化，还需完善玉米市场信息收集和发布体系，强化对国际市场、期货市场和汇率市场的监管。

关键词: 玉米, 金融化, ARDL模型, 政策选择

Abstract:

The growing trend of financialization and energy conversion of corn has changed the price formation mechanism in the corn market. Based on the monthly price data of corn market from September 2004 to July 2017, this paper uses ARDL model to examine the price formation mechanism of China's corn market from the perspectives of supply and demand fundamentals, import and export trade, industry policies and financial factors. The empirical results show that supply and demand fundamentals and industrial policy play a significant role in the formation of corn prices. However, in the financialization, the role of the Baltic Dry Index, the corn futures, the crude oil prices and the exchange rate are more obvious and direct in the pricing mechanism of the corn market. Sensitivity test also verifies the robustness of these conclusions. New changes in the formation mechanism of corn prices make the macro-control policies not only pay attention to changes in supply and demand and other fundamentals, but also improve the information collection and distribution system of the corn market, as well as strengthen supervision and regulation over the international market, futures market and exchange rate market.

Key words: corn, financialization, ARDL model, policy options

吴海霞, 葛岩, 史恒通. 玉米金融化、价格形成机制及政策选择[J]. , 2018, 30(11): 35-45.

Wu Haixia, Ge Yan, Shi Hengtong. Corn Financialization, Price Formation Mechanism and Policy Options[J]. , 2018, 30(11): 35-45.

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