基于熵权法的关键链项目缓冲确定方法

›› 2017, Vol. 29 ›› Issue (1): 211-219.

基于熵权法的关键链项目缓冲确定方法

张俊光, 宋喜伟, 杨双

北京科技大学东凌经济管理学院, 北京 100083

收稿日期:2014-06-03 出版日期:2017-01-28 发布日期:2017-03-16
作者简介:张俊光,北京科技大学东凌经济管理学院教授,博士;宋喜伟,北京科技大学东凌经济管理学院,硕士;杨双,北京科技大学东凌经济管理学院,硕士。
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目（71572010）；中央高校基本科研业务费资助项目（FRF-BR-15-012B）。

Buffer Sizing of a Critical Chain Project Based on the Entropy Method

Zhang Junguang, Song Xiwei, Yang Shuang

DongLinks School of Economics and Management, University of Science and Technology Beijing, Beijing 100083

Received:2014-06-03 Online:2017-01-28 Published:2017-03-16

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为提高缓冲管理的效率，优化缓冲的估计精度，提出了一个基于熵权法的关键链项目缓冲确定模型。首先，运用熵权法评估项目的不确定性，获得项目方差；然后，考虑项目的资源供给情况，估计项目期望工期，计算项目的变异系数，利用模糊方法确定离散程度，并计算项目缓冲；最后，进行蒙特卡洛模拟，并将模拟结果与剪切粘贴法（C&PM）和均方根法（RSEM）进行比较，验证本文所提方法的有效性。该模型涵盖了从活动基本工期估计，到熵权法估计项目不确定性，再到项目缓冲确定的全过程，可以适用于不同项目的进度估计，提高了项目的按时完工率，缩短了项目工期和成本。

关键词: 关键链项目管理, 缓冲, 不确定性, 熵权, 变异系数

Abstract:

To improve the efficiency of buffer management, and optimize the buffer estimation accuracy, a project buffer determination model is proposed based on project uncertainty. First, the entropy method is adopted to assess the uncertainty of the project and obtain the project variance. Second, the minimum duration of the project activity is estimated and the variance coefficient of the project is calculated with the consideration of the project resource supply. And then, a fuzzy method is used to determine the discrete degree, and calculate the project buffer. Finally, the proposed method is compared with the Cut and Paste Method (C&PM) and Root Square Error Method (RSEM) by using the Monte Carlo simulation. The experimental results show that the proposed method can improve the on-time completion rate, and reduce the cost and schedule.

Key words: Critical chain project management, buffer, uncertainty, entropy, variance coefficient

张俊光, 宋喜伟, 杨双. 基于熵权法的关键链项目缓冲确定方法[J]. , 2017, 29(1): 211-219.

Zhang Junguang, Song Xiwei, Yang Shuang. Buffer Sizing of a Critical Chain Project Based on the Entropy Method[J]. , 2017, 29(1): 211-219.

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