管理评论

›› 2016, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (8): 59-65.

• 应急管理专辑 • 上一篇    下一篇

城市重要基础设施灾害情景构建方法与应急能力评价研究

朱伟1,2, 王晶晶1, 杨玲3   

  1. 1. 北京城市系统工程研究中心, 北京 100035;
    2. 燃气、供热及地下管网运行安全北京市重点实验室, 北京 100035;
    3. 首都经济贸易大学安全与环境工程学院, 北京 100026
  • 收稿日期:2015-06-13 出版日期:2016-08-28 发布日期:2016-09-24
  • 作者简介:朱伟,北京城市系统工程研究中心副研究员,博士,燃气、供热及地下管网运行安全北京市重点实验室;王晶晶,北京城市系统工程研究中心助理研究员,博士;杨玲,首都经济贸易大学安全与环境工程学院副教授,博士
  • 基金资助:

    北京市博士后工作经费资助项目；首都经济贸易大学特大城市经济社会发展研究协同创新中心开放课题。

A Method Research on Scenario Construction of Critical Infrastructure ncidents and Emergency Capacity Evaluation

Zhu Wei1,2, Wang Jingjing1, Yang Ling3   

  1. 1. Beijing Research Center of Urban System Engineering, Beijing 100035;
    2. Beijing Key Laboratory of Operation Safety of Gas, Heating and Underground Pipelines, Beijing 100035;
    3. School of Safety and Environment Engineering, Capital University of Economics and Business, Beijing 100026
  • Received:2015-06-13 Online:2016-08-28 Published:2016-09-24

PDF (PC)

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摘要：

重要基础设施是城市正常运行和健康发展的基础，随着重要基础设施之间的关联度和依赖性日益加强，重要基础设施灾害往往带来巨大的经济损失和严重的社会影响，提高重要基础设施的应急能力已经成为了保障城市正常运转的重要前提。本文以重要基础设施为研究对象，基于重要基础设施的关联特征，从延展性、影响对象和持续周期三个方面分析了重要基础设施灾害情景构建的特点，建立了城市重要基础设施灾害的情景构建方法，提出了从准确性、充分性、及时性三个维度评价应急能力的思路，并将提出的通用方法应用于燃气多门站停气事件案例，为实际中重要基础设施的应急管理工作奠定基础。

关键词: 重要基础设施, 情景构建, 应急能力, 关联性

Abstract:

Critical infrastructure is the basis for normal operation and healthy development of a city. Given the increased correlation and dependence between critical infrastructures, a disaster that happens to critical infrastructure often brings huge economic losses and serious social impact, and improving emergency response capacity of critical infrastructure has become an important prerequisite for protecting normal operation of city. With the critical infrastructure as the object of research, based on the correlation feature of critical infrastructure, this paper analyzes the characteristic of scenario construction of critical infrastructure from malleability, influence objects and duration, and presents the method of scenario construction of critical infrastructure, then puts forward an idea of emergency capacity evaluation from three dimensions of accuracy, sufficiency and timeliness. At last, this paper applies the common method to gas multi-gate station incident scene, which verifies the feasibility of this method.

Key words: critical infrastructure, scenario construction, emergency capacity, correlation