人口老龄化,养老金收支缺口与财政风险的传导与化解——以A市为例的一项实证研究

›› 2016, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (4): 62-72,122.

人口老龄化,养老金收支缺口与财政风险的传导与化解——以A市为例的一项实证研究

姚金海^1,2

1. 中共江西省委党校, 南昌 330003;
2. 江西财经大学, 南昌 330003

收稿日期:2014-01-09 出版日期:2016-04-28 发布日期:2016-05-16
作者简介:姚金海,中共江西省委党校公共管理学教研部副教授,博士,江西财经大学应用经济学博士后。
基金资助:
国家社科基金重点项目 (15AJL012)。

The Conduction and Resolution of Population Aging, Pension Income Gap and Financial Risk——An Empirical Study of City A

Yao Jinhai^1,2

1. The Party School of Jiangxi, Nanchang 330003;
2. Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics, Nanchang 330003

Received:2014-01-09 Online:2016-04-28 Published:2016-05-16

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

人口老龄化对养老金制度体系带来了巨大的冲击和挑战。养老基金收支缺口的拉大使得财政负担加重,严重时会导致财政风险。本文通过构建一个理论模型对人口老龄化、养老金收支与财政风险之间的关系进行了揭示,并以A市为例进行了实证研究。结果表明,养老基金投资收益率的提高、退休年龄的延长有利于缩小养老金收支缺口,可以有效防范和化解由此带来的财政风险。为此,政府应尽快完善国有资产划拨和财政转移支付等补充机制,做实个人账户养老基金,大力推进养老基金市场化投资运营。

关键词: 人口老龄化, 养老金收支缺口, 财政风险

Abstract:

Population aging has brought huge impacts and challenges. The income gap in pension funds increased financial burden, which even led to financial risk. This paper builds a theoretical model, which reveals the relationship between the aging population, pension payments and financial risk. We conduct an empirical study with city A as the research sample. The results show that the increase of the pension fund investment yield and the extension of the retirement age can help narrow the pension income gap, and effectively guard against and dissolve the financial risk. Therefore, the government should improve the supplement mechanism such as transfer of state-owned assets and fiscal transfer payments. And at the same time, we should make up the pension personal account and vigorously promote the marketization of pension fund investment operation.

Key words: population aging, pension payment Gap, financial risk

姚金海. 人口老龄化,养老金收支缺口与财政风险的传导与化解——以A市为例的一项实证研究[J]. , 2016, 28(4): 62-72,122.

Yao Jinhai. The Conduction and Resolution of Population Aging, Pension Income Gap and Financial Risk——An Empirical Study of City A[J]. , 2016, 28(4): 62-72,122.

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