证券分析师盈余预测乐观倾向:利益关联还是启发式认知偏差?

›› 2016, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (1): 205-218.

证券分析师盈余预测乐观倾向:利益关联还是启发式认知偏差?

周冬华¹, 赵玉洁²

1. 江西财经大学会计学院, 南昌 330013;
2. 江西财经大学金融学院, 南昌 330013

收稿日期:2013-09-22 出版日期:2016-01-30 发布日期:2016-02-01
作者简介:周冬华,江西财经大学会计学院副教授,硕士生导师,博士;赵玉洁,江西财经大学金融学院讲师,硕士生导师,博士
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目(71262005;71462012);中国博士后基金项目(20013M540352)。

Is It Heuristic Bias or Interest Relation that Leads to Optimistic Earnings Forecast of Securities Analysts?

Zhou Donghua¹, Zhao Yujie²

1. School of Accounting, Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics, Nanchang 330013;
2. School of Finance, Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics, Nanchang 330013

Received:2013-09-22 Online:2016-01-30 Published:2016-02-01

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

本文系统考察了我国证券分析师乐观盈余预测的行为特征,研究发现:(1)由于证券公司与上市公司之间存在的利益关联和分析师自身存在的启发式认知偏差,证券分析师容易出具乐观倾向的盈余预测报告,表现为承销商分析师出具的盈余预测数据高于上市公司当年度实际盈余数据;而且分析师启发式认知偏差越严重,其出具的盈余预测数据与上市公司当年度实际盈余数据的正向偏差越严重;(2)启发式认知偏差和利益关联之间呈现替代关系,各自独立影响证券分析师盈余预测的乐观倾向;但当上市公司增发融资规模越较大,证券公司与上市公司之间的经济利益关联较为重要时,证券公司会诱使非明星分析师跟踪增发上市公司,导致分析师的启发式认知偏差和利益关联之间转变为互补关系,两者交互影响证券分析师盈余预测的乐观倾向。

关键词: 分析师预测, 乐观倾向, 启发式认知偏差, 利益关联

Abstract:

Based on an analysis of optimistic earnings forecast made by securities analysts in China, this paper reaches two conclusions. (1) Driven by heuristic bias, underwriter analysts tend to issue positive forecast reports and give higher earnings forecasts than non-underwriter analysts do and the stronger bias analysts have, the more different EPS forecast they tend to give in comparison with actual EPS. (2) Heuristic bias and interest relation are usually independent of each other in leading analysts to make optimistic earnings forecasts, but they may complement each other and mutually affect analysts' forecasts when listed companies with great financing have significant economic relationship with security companies, which would arrange non-star analysts to follow such listed companies.

Key words: analysts' forecasts, optimistic tendency, heuristic bias, interest relation

周冬华, 赵玉洁. 证券分析师盈余预测乐观倾向:利益关联还是启发式认知偏差?[J]. , 2016, 28(1): 205-218.

Zhou Donghua, Zhao Yujie. Is It Heuristic Bias or Interest Relation that Leads to Optimistic Earnings Forecast of Securities Analysts?[J]. , 2016, 28(1): 205-218.

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