量化宽松对经济复苏到底有多大的作用？

›› 2015, Vol. 27 ›› Issue (7): 23-32,57.

量化宽松对经济复苏到底有多大的作用？

苏治^1,3, 黄雨婷², 范为⁴, 俞乔⁴

1. 中央财经大学统计与数学学院, 北京 100081;
2. 中央财经大学管理科学与工程学院, 北京 100081;
3. 中国人民大学国际货币研究所, 北京 100872;
4. 清华大学公共管理学院, 北京 100084

收稿日期:2014-08-12 发布日期:2015-07-31
作者简介:苏治,中央财经大学统计与数学学院副教授,中国人民大学国际货币研究所兼职研究员,博士生导师,博士;黄雨婷,中央财经大学管理科学与工程学院硕士研究生;范为,清华大学公共管理学院博士后,电子科技大学成都研究院客座研究员,博士;俞乔,清华大学公共管理学院教授,博士生导师,博士.
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目(71473279);教育部"新世纪优秀人才支持计划";中央财经大学第二批青年科研创新团队项目;教育部博士点基金项目(20110016120001);教育部人文社科研究项目(10YJC790220);中央财经大学学科建设211经费.

To What Extent Can Quantitative Easing Help Recover Economy?

Su Zhi^1,3, Huang Yuting², Fan Wei⁴, Yu Qiao⁴

1. School of Statistics and Mathematics, Central University of Finance and Economics, Beijing 100081;
2. School of Management Science and Engineering, Central University of Finance and Economics, Beijing 100081;
3. International Monetary Institute, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872;
4. School of Public Policy and Management, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084

Received:2014-08-12 Published:2015-07-31

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

2008年金融危机后的全球性量化宽松在历史上尚属首次,对世界各大经济体迅速产生巨大影响,但量化宽松对经济复苏究竟有多大作用仍存在争议.本文基于量化宽松对全球经济产生影响的典型化事实,提出一种新型影响模式——"脉冲式响应",运用实体经济虚拟经济相背离的理论分析脉冲式响应的内在作用机理,引入TVP-BVAR模型实证分析美联储量化宽松货币政策对美国及中国经济的作用效果.结果表明,超宽松的货币刺激在短期内对挽救金融危机、缓解经济衰退起到至关重要的作用,但长期看并不能持续拉动实体经济产出和就业的增长,不能持续推进经济复苏.挽救金融危机的政策不是通过量化宽松政策刺激投机性需求,而应该是通过财政转移支付、税收减免、大力扶持消费信用等以增加大众的真实收入刺激真实需求.

关键词: 量化宽松, 脉冲式响应, TVP-BVAR模型

Abstract:

The first ever global quantitative easing after the 2008 financial crisis quickly had a significant impact on the world’s economy, but its effect on the economic recovery remains controversial. This paper, based on the factual impacts that quantitative easing has on the global economy, puts forward a new influence model - "Pulse Response", uses the theory of the virtual economy deviating from the real economy to analyze the intrinsic mechanism of impulse response, and also introduces TVP-BVAR model to empirically analyze the effects of the Fed’s quantitative easing monetary policy on the United States and China. The results show that the ultra-loose monetary stimulus in the short term played a crucial role in rescuing the financial crisis and easing the recession, but in the long term it cannot continuously promote real economic output and employment rate, nor constantly drive economic recovery. The financial crisis curbing policy should aim to increase the public’s real income and boost the real demand through fiscal transfer payment, tax breaks and strong support for the consumption credit, rather than stimulate speculative demands through the quantitative easing policy.

Key words: quantitative easing, impulse response, TVP-BVAR model

苏治, 黄雨婷, 范为, 俞乔. 量化宽松对经济复苏到底有多大的作用？[J]. , 2015, 27(7): 23-32,57.

Su Zhi, Huang Yuting, Fan Wei, Yu Qiao. To What Extent Can Quantitative Easing Help Recover Economy?[J]. , 2015, 27(7): 23-32,57.

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