农地流转与特色生态产业正反馈互促仿真实验——基于逐树检验参数组合仿真法

›› 2015, Vol. 27 ›› Issue (12): 202-216.

农地流转与特色生态产业正反馈互促仿真实验——基于逐树检验参数组合仿真法

李凤¹, 廖晓明¹, 贾仁安², 涂国平², 祝琴²

1. 南昌大学公共管理学院, 南昌 330031;
2. 南昌大学系统工程研究所, 南昌 330031

收稿日期:2015-08-14 出版日期:2015-12-30 发布日期:2015-12-25
作者简介:李凤,南昌大学公共管理学院硕士研究生;廖晓明,南昌大学公共管理学院教授,博士生导师;贾仁安,南昌大学系统工程研究所教授,博士生导师;涂国平,南昌大学系统工程研究所教授,博士生导师;祝琴,南昌大学系统工程研究所副教授。
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目(71261018;71171208;71163032);江西省软科学项目(20141BBA10035);江西省博士后科研项目(2013KY58);本研究受江西省"十二五"重点学科管理科学与工程资助。

Simulation Test on the Mutual-promotion of Positive Feedback between Rural Land Transference and Special Eco-industry Based on Method of Checking Step by Step and Parametric Combination Simulation

Li Feng¹, Liao Xiaoming¹, Jia Renan², Tu Guoping², Zhu Qin²

1. School of Public Administration, Nanchang University, Nanchang 330031;
2. Institute of System Engineering, Nanchang University, Nanchang 330031

Received:2015-08-14 Online:2015-12-30 Published:2015-12-25

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

开发特色农产品生态产业,是实现农村土地经营权流转与生态产业正反馈互促发展的重要管理措施,本文新建逐树检验参数组合仿真法对此进行研究。首先,通过筛选优良的农产品种类,制定江西某地区沼肥雷竹笋生态产业发展措施与规划;接着,通过逐树仿真检验,建立含仿真实验调控参数的T₁(t)-T₆(t)六棵流率基本入树,构建可靠性高的仿真实验模型;然后,基于参数组合仿真实验法,依据抛荒比C₁₁、经营权流转比C₁₂、均单产C₃₁、单位产品均利润C₅₁、公顷均沼肥量C₆₁五个参数变化范围构建最满意组合和最不满意组合,分别进行仿真实验,分别进行仿真结果分析和对比研究,基于仿真结果提出操作性强的管理对策。本文新建的逐树检验参数组合仿真法提高了建模可靠性和增强了仿真针对性,综合仿真实验的结果与对策为制定相关管理措施提供了依据。

关键词: 农地经营权流转, 特色农产品生态产业, 系统动力学, 逐树检验参数组合仿真法

Abstract:

This paper aims to develop eco-industry of special agricultural products to realize the important management measure of positive feedback interactive development for management rights transference in farmland and eco-industry. First, making plans and measures of the development for biogas fertilizer bamboo shoots in certain area of Jiangxi by selecting excellent agricultural products is shown. Second, the simulation model of high reliability is constructed by simulation test of each In-tree step by step to build T₁(t)-T₆(t) six rate variable fundamental in-trees of containing simulation control parameters. Third, according to simulation experiment of parametric combination and five parameter's range of desolated farmland rate C₁₁, transference of management rights rate C₁₂, average yield per unit C₃₁, average profit of yield per unit C₅₁, average biogas fertilizer of per hectare C₆₁, the most satisfied combination and the most dissatisfied combination are constructed, simulated and analyzed separately, by which the management countermeasures of strong operation are formulated. The newly-built simulation of checking each in-tree step by step and parametric combination will improve model reliability and enhance simulation pertinence, and the results and countermeasures of comprehensive simulation provide the basis for making relevant management measures.

Key words: transference of management rights in farmland, special agricultural products and eco-industry, system dynamics, simulation of checking each in-tree step by step and parametric combination

李凤, 廖晓明, 贾仁安, 涂国平, 祝琴. 农地流转与特色生态产业正反馈互促仿真实验——基于逐树检验参数组合仿真法[J]. , 2015, 27(12): 202-216.

Li Feng, Liao Xiaoming, Jia Renan, Tu Guoping, Zhu Qin. Simulation Test on the Mutual-promotion of Positive Feedback between Rural Land Transference and Special Eco-industry Based on Method of Checking Step by Step and Parametric Combination Simulation[J]. , 2015, 27(12): 202-216.

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