National Innovation-oriented Cities' Dynamic Evolution of Innovation Capability-Based on the Research in Technological Achievements Index

Abstract

Abstract:

Based on Technology Achievement Index established by UNDP in 2011, this paper measures the Technology Achievement Index of China's 21 national innovative cities during 2001-2011, and analyzes its changing distribution characteristics and final steady distribution state by using kernel density estimation and Markov chain analysis methods. Results show that the Technology Achievement Index of China's 21 national innovative cities continually grow, but the gap between cities is expanding, especially after 2006. In long term, the evolution path of Technology Achievement Index of China'ss 21 national innovative cities is relatively flat:the probability for cities at a low level to achieve substantive development is low; the final steady-state distribution will be weakening poles and strengthening middle group. For the high level group, the key to its development is to shape the innovation environment and to enhance dominant position for enterprise innovation; for the low level group, the key to its development is to form and improve regional innovation center through policy guidance.

Key words: innovative cities, technology achievement index, kernel density estimation, Markov chains

Xu Zhi, Chen Liyu. National Innovation-oriented Cities' Dynamic Evolution of Innovation Capability-Based on the Research in Technological Achievements Index[J]. , 2016, 28(10): 58-66.

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