Study on Grid Engineering Cost Index Forecasting Based on ARIMA-ES Hybrid Model

Abstract

Abstract:

The power grid project cost index is a comprehensive index which reflects the impact of market price fluctuation on power grid project cost. The accurate and effective forecasting of power grid project cost index can improve the management level of construction management department. This paper takes the engineering of power grid as an example, based on the line project cost data of Zhejiang province from 2008 to 2014, under the unified engineering technology and scale conditions, constructs a comprehensive cost index for power grid project innovatively, and estimates the historical cost index reasonably. In the power grid project cost index forecasting model, the GDP index is introduced, and the elasticity coefficient between the cost index and GDP index is analyzed. The ARIMA-ES mixed model is used to calculate the cost index. Through the comparison with GM (1,1) and linear regression model, the results show that the forecasting results of ARIMA-ES mixed model are more consistent with the development trend of regional economy and improve the forecasting precision of the power grid project cost index. In the application of forecasting method, the reference value is of certain practical significance to improving the management level and reducing the investment of project cost.

Key words: grid engineering, ARIMA-ES hybrid model, cost index, predict

Liu Weidong, Shi Huajun, Lu Yan, Hua Fuyu, Qiu Jinpeng. Study on Grid Engineering Cost Index Forecasting Based on ARIMA-ES Hybrid Model[J]. , 2016, 28(3): 45-53,105.

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