Abstract: The intensification of global trade tensions and protectionism has accelerated the restructuring of supply chains and industrial networks. Multinational manufacturing firms, under the pressure of tariff barriers and trade regulations, are faced with strategic choice regarding supply chain relocation. Relocating production to countries with lower tariffs has become a viable strategy to mitigate high tariff pressures, but this requires compliance with rules of origin and value-added constraints. This study constructs a three-level cross-border supply chain model using game theory to analyze how tariff policies influence multinational firms' decisions. The results show that firms can benefit from relocating production to third countries only when the tariff differential between preferential and original tariffs reaches a moderate level. Small tariff differentials provide insufficient motivation. However, when the tariff gap becomes significant, multinational manufacturing firms must decide whether to relocate their production base, considering both the tariff gap and rules of origin constraints. Additionally, product substitutability and market size significantly affect decisions. Less competitive products are more suited for supply chain restructuring, while larger markets raise the threshold for tariff differentials. This study highlights the core mechanisms of how tariff policies impact supply chain restructuring and provides practical guidance for firms navigating complex international trade environments.

Key words: supply chain restructuring, rules of origin, value-added constraints, trade tariffs, competitive game