Management Review

Management Review ›› 2025, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (8): 248-261.

• Logistics and Supply Chain Management • Previous Articles    

Modular Emergency Supply Chain Coordination Considering Decision-maker Overconfidence under Supply Disruptions

Qiu Ying1,2, Huang Yihao1, Yao Di1,2, Zhang Weijian3, Wang Shouyang3,4,5   

  1. 1. School of Economics and Management, Beijing Institute of Petrochemical Technology, Beijing 102617;
    2. Beijing Modern Industrial New Area Development Research Base, Beijing 102617;
    3. School of Economics and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190;
    4. Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190;
    5. Center for Predictive Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190
  • Received:2023-11-02 Published:2025-09-09

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Abstract: Adequate emergency supplies are critical for dealing with unexpected events. For various related types of emergency supplies, the disruption of one type of supply can exacerbate the overall shortage risk. To enhance the resilience of the emergency services supply chain, a modular emergency supplies storage method is designed to address the mismatched demand for the quantity and categories of emergency supplies. Taking into account decision-making biases caused by the incomplete rationality of government decision-maker, an emergency supplies storage model considering decision-maker overconfidence is designed based on quantity-flexible contracts. Two scenarios, with and without decision-maker overconfidence, are analyzed to dissect the coordination mechanisms of the emergency service supply chain under modular emergency supplies storage. Through case simulations, the impacts of modular storage, overconfidence levels, and key contract parameters, such as conventional procurement prices and elasticity coefficients, on optimal decision-making are analyzed. The results show that modular procurement can appropriately reduce inventory redundancy risks, deepen the precision management of emergency supplies inventory, reduce government financial investments and inventory costs, and improve the resilience of the emergency service supply chain and overall profits. When the decision-maker is overconfident, it is easy to induce an emergency shortage risk. By adopting lower conventional procurement prices, the government can stimulate increased procurement and compensate for decision biases, but it can seriously harm supplier interests and long-term coordination of the emergency service supply chain. Leveraging the role of quantity-flexible contracts can effectively adjust the conventional procurement prices of categories prone to supply disruptions in a targeted and dynamic manner to achieve coordination within the emergency service supply chain.

Key words: emergency supply chain, supply disruptions, modularization, overconfidence