Management Review

Management Review ›› 2025, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (5): 3-16.

• Economic and Financial Management •    

Emission Reduction Effect of Low-carbon Transition in Power System: Analysis from the Perspective of Structure Optimization

Zhang Guoxing1, Gao Xiulin1, Yang Yang1, Yu Lean2, Liu Chuanbin3   

  1. 1. School of Management, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000;
    2. Business School, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610065;
    3. Center for Scientific Research and Development in Higher Education Institutes, Ministry of Education, Beijing 100086
  • Received:2024-04-18 Published:2025-06-18

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Abstract: Promoting structural decarbonization of the power system, the largest source of CO2 emissions in China, is conducive to slowing down urban carbon emissions and realizing the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals. On the basis of decomposing the production data of all power plants of 6000 kW and above in China (14,570 plants in total) to the city level, this paper uses the panel data of 274 urban power production terminals from 2015 to 2019 to analyze the impact of low-carbon transformation of power system on urban carbon emissions and the spatial differences by using a spatial metro-logy model. With the aid of LMDI decomposition analysis, the future carbon emission paths of power systems in seven regions are predicted under two policy scenarios. The results show that:(1) Compared with thermal power generation, renewable energy generation can effectively reduce urban carbon emissions in Central, South, Southwest and Northwest China; (2) The clean transformation of power generation structure can effectively inhibit the increase of urban carbon emissions, and there is a positive spatial spillover effect. Specifically, when the share of renewable energy generation increases by 1%, urban carbon emissions fall by an average of 2.1%; (3) Regional policy scenario analysis shows that power systems in Northwest and Southwest China will be the first to achieve the peak of carbon emissions, while those in North and East China will be the last, and all regional power systems will achieve the peak goal successively in 2026-2030. At present, the overall proportion of clean energy power generation is still small, and it is necessary to fully tap and utilize the potential of wind, sunlight and other renewable energy power generation while promoting power generation technology innovation, and continue to enhance the positive role of renewables in urban carbon reduction and green governance.

Key words: electricity production, renewable energy generation, power generation structure, urban carbon emission reduction, policy scenario