Abstract: From the perspective of the industrial chain, this paper distinguishes the heterogeneity of industries, proposes a framework of measurement for industrial transfer and its impact based on the inter-regional input-output model, and quantifies the impact of industrial transfer of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region on the value-added and carbon emissions by three regions. The results are as follows. (1) There is significant heterogeneity in the overall and internal transfer of industries in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, and the net impacts of industrial transfer on the value-added and carbon emissions are not consistent across regions. (2) The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region as a whole experienced the processes of service transfer-in from 2012 to 2017 and industrial transfer-out from 2012 to 2017 respectively, leading to net increases and net decreases of both added value and carbon emissions of the whole region for the corresponding periods. (3) From 2012 to 2017, the coordinated development of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and the related policies of “relocation of non-capital core functions” not only promoted the overall economic growth of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, but also led to an overall increase in carbon emissions of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region through industrial transfer. In addition, this significantly increased the total carbon emissions of Hebei Province, which undertook the relocation of resource-intensive manufacturing industries. (4) Since 2018, a lot of the manufacturing industries, especially the resource-intensive manufacturing industries such as petroleum processing, coking, and non-ferrous metal smelting and processing, have continued to transfer from Beijing or Tianjin to Hebei Province. Considering the gap in low-carbon technologies among the three regions, the negative impact of industrial transfer on the total carbon emissions of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebeii region as a whole may continue. The results of this paper provide a scientific reference for the formulation of policies related to coordinated emission reductions between the transfer-in and transfer-out areas under the “Dual Carbon” goal.

Key words: Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, industrial transfer, input-output model, coordinated emissions reductions