Abstract: On the basis of in-depth analysis of the connotation of the development of China’s modern industrial system, based on the panel data of 31 provinces in China from 2005 to 2020, this paper constructs an index evaluation system of China’s modern industrial system from four aspects: real economy, modern industrial integration development, digital development and industrial system development guarantee. The entropy method and Dagum Gini coefficient method are used to measure the development level and space-time gap of modern industrial system. The kernel density estimation method and spatial Markov chain method are used to investigate the space-time evolution of the development level of modern industrial system and predict the future development trend. The results show that there are spatial differences in the development level of China’s modern industrial system, showing a non-equilibrium distribution pattern of gradual decline in the eastern coast, northern coast, southern coast, middle reaches of the Yangtze River, northeastern China, middle reaches of the Yellow River, southwestern China and northwestern China. The gap between regions is the main source of the overall gap. There are polarization characteristics in coastal areas. The development level of the national modern industrial system shows a club convergence effect. There are low-level traps and high-level monopoly phenomena in low-level and high-level provinces. The development level shows Matthew effect. The positive radiation driving effect of higher-level provinces is more significant over time, and the trend of spatial polarization is reduced. Therefore, we should give full play to the supporting role of modern infrastructure system, formulate industrial development policies according to local conditions, and enhance the resilience of modern industrial system.

Key words: modern industrial system, index evaluation system, regional gap, temporal-spatial evolution