Abstract: Based on the panel data of Chinese provinces from 2000 to 2018, this paper comprehensively investigates the emission reduction effects of carbon emission trading pilot policies by using propensity score matching differential method, synthetic control method and spatial differential method. The study finds that in terms of average effect, the implementation of carbon emission trading pilot policy can effectively promote the pilot areas to reduce carbon dioxide emissions. This paper further analyzes the dynamic impact of the policies, and finds that the emission reduction effect of the pilot policies of carbon emission trading has an “inverted U-shaped” feature. This paper also uses SCM method to conduct a case study, and finds that the implementation of pilot policies leads to much less carbon emission in Hubei, Tianjin, Chongqing, etc., but brings little effect in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangdong, etc. Taking the spatial spillover effect into consideration, we find that the existence of carbon leakage leads to a significant decrease in the overall emission reduction effect of the pilot policies. In view of the above findings, the pilot provinces and cities should, on the basis of local actual situation, make full use of the market mechanism to achieve low-carbon development, and strengthen regional linkage to promote coordinated emission reduction.

Key words: carbon emission trading pilot, emission reduction effect, PSM-DID, SCM, SDID