Abstract: The outbreak of COVID-19 has brought an all-round impact on the global supply chain system, especially on agricultural products. Taking chilled pork as an example, this paper establishes a three-echelon agricultural product supply chain model made up of the supplier, the manufacturer and the retailer, which takes into account three typical disruption scenes arising from COVID-19, namely dull sale on the supplier side, production capacity disruption on the manufacturer side and demand disruption on the retailer side. Given that supply chain disruption caused by the COVID-19 pandemic is characterized by "long-term disruption", "unpredictable scale", "simultaneous disruption of multiple echelons" and "recovery during the disruption", this paper uses the method of system dynamics to analyze the influence of the government subsidy on the cumulative profits of supply chain under partial and complete disruption scenarios. It is found that the effects of the government subsidy on the recovery of the supply chain system varies dramatically in different scenarios; in most cases, granting government subsidies to supplier is more contributive to the supply chain system's recovery. The result could be a reference for the government subsidy strategy planning during a pandemic similar to COVID-19.

Key words: COVID-19, agricultural products supply chain, system dynamics, disruption, government subsidies