Abstract: At present, China’s new energy vehicle industry is facing policy transition toward reducing subsidies and forming a dual-credit regime. Therefore, based on the background of policy transition, it is of practical significance to analyze the influences of different policy stages on the R&D and production decision-making in the NEV innovation ecosystem, so as to provide guidance for policy optimization and R&D production management of NEV enterprises. Therefore, this paper constructs a R&D production decision-making model and social welfare model in the new energy vehicle innovation ecosystem based on the policy transition, then the optimal R&D investment, the optimal pricing of new energy vehicles and parts, the optimal government subsidies and point score rate setting are deduced by backward induction method. Finally, mathematical derivation and numerical simulation methods are used to analyze the impact of different policy stages on the optimal R&D and production decisions of new energy vehicles. The results indicate that: the pricing of NEV is positively correlated with the subsidy intensity; the incentive effect of subsidies on the R&D investment of suppliers is conditional, which is mainly reflected in the early stage of technology R&D and promotion; the subsidy intensity is not positively correlated with the social welfare, and there is the optimal subsidy intensity to maximize the social welfare; The implementation of the dual-credit policy can effectively reduce the dependence of the supplier’s R&D on government subsidies and improve the supplier’s core technology investment at the same time; balancing the relationships between score rate of CAFC of fuel vehicles and the score rate of CAFC of NEVs can help maximize the social welfare.

Key words: new energy vehicle industry, policy transition, innovation ecosystem, R&D production decision