Does Population Aging Bring Opportunities or Resistance to the Transformation and Upgrading of Industrial Structure? An Analysis Based on the Two-dimensional Mechanism of Supply and Demand

Abstract

Abstract: Given the national goal of high-quality economic development and the problem of population aging, this paper analyzes the theoretical mechanism of how population aging influences the transformation and upgrading of industrial structure through labor supply and consumption demand from three dimensions: industrial upgrading, coordination and transformation, and builds a dynamic panel mode based on provincial panel data from 1997 to 2018. The following conclusions are drawn through SYS-GMM estimation method: (1) Population aging brings both opportunities and resistance to the transformation and upgrading of industrial structure as it can promote industrial upgrading and force industrial transformation on the one hand but hinders industrial coordination on the other hand. (2) Seen from the labor supply path, population aging will bring about “opportunities” for the transformation and upgrading of the industrial structure by forcing the improvement of the quality of labor supply, but the resultant reduction of labor supply will retard industrial coordination to the detriment of industrial structure transformation and upgrading. (3) Seen from the path of consumption demand, change of total consumption demand will amplify the retardant effect of population aging on industrial coordination, but enhances its role in promoting industrial upgrading and transformation. At the same time, population aging can turn “resistance” into “opportunities” and fully promote the transformation and upgrading of industrial structure so long as consumption demands are driven to a high level.

Key words: population aging, industrial upgrading, industrial coordination, industrial transformation

Wang Xinliang, Du Zhuangzhuang, Liu Fei. Does Population Aging Bring Opportunities or Resistance to the Transformation and Upgrading of Industrial Structure? An Analysis Based on the Two-dimensional Mechanism of Supply and Demand[J]. Management Review, 2022, 34(10): 79-91.

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