Abstract: The development of disruptive innovation technology is an important strategic choice to accelerate the upgrading of industrial structure and the transformation of development mode, and seize the commanding heights of future development. However, given the significant uncertainties, it is challenging both theoretically and practically to identify the optimal disruptive innovation technology and industry. Based on uncertainties theory, this paper conducts a systematic literature review and summary of the existing major disruptive technology identification methods, and then constructs a multi-stage screening and evaluation path of disruptive technology “innovation funnel”. It is found that there is no optimal identification, screening and evaluation mode, but the specific background applicable to the mode should be considered, so the effective screening and evaluation path should be contingency; With the development of disruptive technologies, the degree of uncertainties is decreasing, and the easier it is to obtain information resources, the more accurate assessment methods are needed; It is necessary to comprehensively consider the matching contingency relationship between the stage of “innovation funnel” and the identification method to make an accurate disruptive technology cultivation policy.

Key words: uncertainty, innovation funnel, disruptive technologies, identification method, screening path