Does the Carbon Emission Trading Scheme Promote the Optimization and Upgrading of Regional Industrial Structure?

Abstract

Abstract: At present, China is challenged by economic slowdown and worsening environmental pollution, so a logical way to solve the resultant problems is to optimize and upgrade industrial structure. This paper uses panel data from 31 provinces and cities in China from 2005 to 2016, and applies the Difference in Difference (DID) method to test the net effect of carbon emission trading scheme on the optimization and upgrading of regional industrial structure. The result shows that, carbon emission trading scheme is conducive to the optimization and upgrading of regional industrial structure and its promoting effect on the upgrading of regional industrial structure is far greater than its inhibiting effect on the rationalization of regional industrial structure. Further mechanistic tests shows that carbon emission trading can promote the upgrading of regional industrial structure by enhancing regional technological innovation and promoting regional industrial evolution, but it can not optimize regional output structure, nor can it effectively promote the coupling between input structure and output structure, so it cannot effectively improve the rationalization level of regional industrial structure. Due to the differences in marketization level and resource endowment, the optimization and upgrading of regional industrial structure of carbon emission trading has obvious regional heterogeneity. It promotes the optimization and upgrading of the industrial structure in the eastern region, but has a limited effect in the central and western regions. Carbon emission trading forces some polluting enterprises in pilot areas to transfer to neighboring provinces, and attracts more capital, talents and other high-quality resources from related industries in neighboring provinces, which is not conducive to the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure in neighboring provinces in the short term. The carbon emission trading based on market mechanisms provides a feasible path for the optimization and upgrading of regional industrial structure. China should more actively push forward the construction of the carbon emission trading market, force enterprises to implement low-carbon transformation, so as to achieve the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure and overcome the "Middle Income Trap".

Key words: the carbon emission trading scheme, the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure, DID, regional heterogeneity, externality

Liu Manfeng, Cheng Sijia. Does the Carbon Emission Trading Scheme Promote the Optimization and Upgrading of Regional Industrial Structure?[J]. Management Review, 2022, 34(7): 33-46.

References

[1] Ramanathan R., Black A., Nath P., et al.Impact of Environmental Regulations on Innovation and Performance in the UK Industrial Sector[J].Management Decision, 2010,48(10):1493-1513
[2] Porter M.E., van der Linde C.Toward a New Conception of the Environment-Competitiveness Relationship[J].The Journal of Economic Perspectives, 1995,9(4):97-118
[3] 刘伟,童健,薛景.行业异质性、环境规制与工业技术创新[J].科研管理, 2017,38(5):1-11
[4] 余东华,孙婷.环境规制、技能溢价与制造业国际竞争力[J].中国工业经济, 2017,(5):35-53
[5] Coase R.H.The Problem of Social Cost[J].The Journal of Law and Economics, 2013,56(4):837-877
[6] 李新军,陈美娜,达庆利.碳交易视角下政府管制的汽车制造企业闭环供应链优化决策[J].管理评论, 2020,32(5):269-279
[7] Anke C.P., Hobbie H., Schreiber S., et al.Coal Phase-outs and Carbon Prices Interactions between EU Emission Trading and National Carbon Mitigation Policies[J].Energy Policy, 2020,144:1-11
[8] 张伟伟,祝国平,张佳睿.国际碳市场减排绩效经验研究[J].财经问题研究, 2014,(12):35-40
[9] Rose A., Peterson T.D., Zhang Z.X.Regional Carbon Dioxide Permit Trading in the United States:Coalition Choices for Pennsylvania[J].Penn Stata Environ Law Review, 2006,14:101-127
[10] Abrell J., Faye A.N., Zachmann G.Assessing the Impact of the EU ETS Using Firm Level Data[R].Bruegel Working Paper, 2011
[11] Hübler M., Voigt S., Löschel A.Designing an Emissions Trading Scheme for China-An Up-to-date Climate Policy Assessment[J].Energy Policy, 2014,75:57-72
[12] Cui L.B., Fan Y., Zhu L., et al.How will the Emissions Trading Scheme Save Cost for Achieving China's 2020 Carbon Intensity Reduction Target?[J].Applied Energy, 2014,136(12):1043-1052
[13] Zhang H., Duan M., Deng Z.Have China's Pilot Emissions Trading Schemes Promoted Carbon Emission Reduction?The Evidence from Industrial Sub-sectors at the Provincial Level[J].Journal of Cleaner Production, 2019,234:912-924
[14] 吴力波,钱浩祺,汤维祺.基于动态边际减排成本模拟的碳排放权交易与碳税选择机制[J].经济研究, 2014,49(9):48-61
[15] 谭秀杰,刘宇,王毅.湖北碳交易试点的经济环境影响研究——基于中国多区域一般均衡模型TermCo2[J].武汉大学学报(哲学社会科学版), 2016,69(2):64-72
[16] 崔连标,段宏波,许金华.交易费用对我国碳市场成本有效性的影响——基于国内碳交易试点间的模拟分析[J].管理评论, 2017,29(6):23-31
[17] 王倩,高翠云.碳交易体系助力中国避免碳陷阱、促进碳拖钩的效应研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境, 2018,28(9):16-23
[18] 黄志平.碳排放权交易有利于碳减排吗?——基于双重差分法的研究[J].干旱区资源环境, 2018,32(9):32-36
[19] 宋晓玲,孔垂铭.中国碳交易市场对地区经济结构影响的实证分析[J].宏观经济研究, 2018,(9):98-108
[20] 沈洪涛,黄楠.碳排放权交易机制能提高企业价值吗[J].财贸经济, 2019,40(1):144-161
[21] 涂正革,谌仁俊.排污权交易机制在中国能否实现波特效应?[J].经济研究, 2015,50(7):160-173
[22] Tassey G.Policy Issues for R&D Investment in a Knowledge-Based Economy[J].Journal of Technology Transfer, 2004,29(2):153-185
[23] Dales J.H.Pollution, Property and Prices:An Essay in Policy-Making and Economics[M].Toronto:University of Toronto Press, 1968
[24] 杜莉,丁志国,李博.产业结构调整升级:碳金融交易机制的助推——基于欧盟数据的实证研究[J].清华大学学报(哲学社会科学版), 2012,27(5):143-150
[25] 杨大光,刘嘉夫.中国碳金融对产业结构和能源消费结构的影响——基于CDM视角的实证研究[J].吉林大学社会科学学报, 2012,52(5):98-105
[26] 干春晖,郑若谷,余典范.中国产业结构变迁对经济增长和波动的影响[J].经济研究, 2011,46(5):4-16
[27] 李庭辉,董洁.基于LSTAR模型的技术创新与产业结构关系实证研究[J].中国软科学, 2018,(6):151-162
[28] 马光荣.制度、企业生产率与资源配置效率——基于中国市场化转型的研究[J].财贸经济, 2014,(8):104-114
[29] Angrist J.D., Pischke J.S.Mostly Harmless Econometrics:An Empiricist's Companion[M].Princeton:Princeton University Press, 2008
[30] 任亚运,傅京燕.碳交易的减排及绿色发展效应研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境, 2019,29(5):11-20
[31] 王林梅,邓玲.我国产业结构优化升级的实证研究——以长江经济带为例[J].经济问题, 2015,(5):39-43
[32] 于斌斌.产业结构调整与生产率提升的经济增长效应——基于中国城市动态空间面板模型的分析[J].中国工业经济, 2015,(12):83-98
[33] 陶桂芬,方晶.区域产业结构变迁对经济增长的影响——基于1978-2013年15个省份的实证研究[J].经济理论与经济管理, 2016,(11):88-100
[34] Li P., Lu Y., Wang J.Does Flattening Government Improve Economic Performance?Evidence from China[J].Journal of Development Economics, 2016,123:18-37
[35] 张国建,佟孟华,李慧,等.扶贫改革试验区的经济增长效应及政策有效性评估[J].中国工业经济, 2019,(8):136-154
[36] Jacobson L.S., Lalonde R.J., Sullivan D.G.Earnings Losses of Displaced Workers[J].The American Economic Review, 1993,83(4):685-709
[37] Ferrara E.L., Chong A., Duryea S.Soap Operas and Fertility:Evidence from Brazil[J].American Economic Journal:Applied Economics, 2012,4(4):1-31
[38] 周茂,陆毅,杜艳,等.开发区设立与地区制造业升级[J].中国工业经济, 2018,(3):62-79
[39] 宋弘,孙雅洁,陈登科.政府空气污染治理效应评估——来自中国"低碳城市"建设的经验研究[J].管理世界, 2019,(6):95-108