Abstract: Based on two rounds of micro-survey data of Chinese residents, this paper constructs an expected poverty probability model to measure the poverty vulnerability of urban households, and studies the dynamic evolution from the national, regional and family dimensions. The results show that China’s marginal effect on international poverty reduction has declined, urban chronic poverty has continued to improve, but temporary poverty has shown signs of aggravation. Relative poverty is increasingly prominent, and it is becoming more and more serious in developed areas. Meanwhile, the situation of poverty in Heilongjiang has worsened, Henan and Hunan have the widest coverage of invisible poverty, and Henan, Hubei, Hunan and Chongqing are the areas with high incidence of poverty. Over time, poverty vulnerability tends to the young household evidently; the gender of householder has degenerated into a non-influencing factor in poverty vulnerability, while marriage and child-rearing become the main risk of disturbing family stability. Moreover, the investment of individual education has been unable to inhibit the poverty vulnerability unless the family education level is promoted in a balanced way. In terms of effective identification, national relative poverty line applies to chronic poverty vulnerability, regional relative poverty line is suitable for temporary poverty vulnerability, and the identification of high vulnerability is conducive to accurate poverty alleviation.

Key words: urban household, poverty vulnerability, probability model, dynamic evolution, accurate poverty alleviation