Abstract: Compared to traditional promotions, uncertain promotions have unique advantages, such as low cost and high entertainment, and are widely used in current business practices. Most of the existing literature has focused on the effectiveness of uncertain promotions, while there is little discussion on the boundary condition of uncertain promotions effect. Enterprises still lack enough theoretical guidance. This paper collects data from Tsingtao Brewery, which sells the same product in two package sizes, 12-bottle package, and 6-bottle package. We empirically examine the impact of discount depth on consumer participation in uncertain promotions and further discuss the moderating role of package size. The results show that the discount depth of uncertain promotions has a significant negative impact on customer participation, and the package size has a significant moderating effect. Specifically, for the large package size, the uncertain discount depth has a significant positive impact on customer participation. In contrast, for the small one, the discount depth has a significant negative impact on customer participation. We discuss the managerial implications at the end of this paper.

Key words: package size, uncertain promotion, customer participation, discount depth