Analysis of Influencing Factors and Scenario Prediction of Transportation Carbon Emissions in the Yellow River Basin

Abstract

Abstract: Coordinating the relationship between transportation energy consumption and carbon emissions in the Yellow River Basin is a highly time-sensitive and urgent issue. In order to explore the influencing factors and trends of regional transportation carbon emissions, the study introduces method to decompose the influencing factors, and establishes the extended STIRPAT model to predict the carbon emission trend under different scenarios. The results show:1) during the period from 1998 to 2017, the carbon emissions of regional transportation experience changes from continuous rise to rapid decline to wavelike rise; the growth of per capita GDP and population in the Yellow River Basin promotes transportation carbon emissions, and the decrease of transportation intensity, transportation energy intensity and energy consumption per unit turnover volume inhibits the growth of carbon emissions; there are significant differences in transportation carbon emissions under different scenarios, and maintaining low population growth, high economic growth and high technological level are probably consistent with the future development trend. Therefore, optimizing the industrial structure, accelerating the promotion of new energy vehicles and improving transportation standardization should be the main paths to reduce the regional transportation carbon emissions in the future.

Key words: Yellow River Basin, transportation carbon emissions, LMDI, STIRPAT, ridge regression

Zhang Guoxing, Su Zhaoxian. Analysis of Influencing Factors and Scenario Prediction of Transportation Carbon Emissions in the Yellow River Basin[J]. Management Review, 2020, 32(12): 283-294.

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