The Effectiveness of TEI@I Forecasting: Evidence from a Five-year Project-based Public Prediction for Pearl River Delta Port Logistics

Abstract

Abstract: Existing literatures that assess the performance of forecasting methods typically based on historical data are partially subjective. We propose a brand new framework for evaluating and tracking the effectiveness of forecasting methods with data set from predicting project under real scenarios. This paper empirically examines the effectiveness of TEI@I methodology using public project-based data for Pearl River Delta Port logistics during the period from 2009 to 2013. Our analyses show that TEI@I model has both excellent prediction accuracy and robustness, which decreases with the increase of prediction duration. This paper also demonstrates that future development tendency of the complex system can be effectively predicted.

Key words: TEI@I methodology, forecasting, port logistics, container throughput, adaptivity

Tian Xin, Wang Haoqing, Zhu Jiayi, E Erjiang. The Effectiveness of TEI@I Forecasting: Evidence from a Five-year Project-based Public Prediction for Pearl River Delta Port Logistics[J]. Management Review, 2020, 32(7): 76-88.

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