Macroeconomic Uncertainty, the Scope of Strategic Change and Investment Behavior

Abstract

Abstract:

In the background of Chinese emerging and transitional market, we explore the relationship among macroeconomic uncertainty, the scope of strategic change and investment behavior using a sample of A-share listed companies from 2002 to 2013. We find that macroeconomic uncertainty is negatively related with investment efficiency which means that macroeconomic uncertainty not only leads to underinvestment, but also gives rise to overinvestment. The scope of strategic change also exercises an influence on investment behavior and the scope of strategic change is positively correlated with overinvestment (underinvestment) level. Further, the scope of strategic change can positively adjust the relationship between macroeconomic uncertainty and the investment behavior, especially in private listed companies as well as in economic upswings, the empirical result of which is more significant. The conclusion provides practical reference for the investment decision and strategy management of Chinese listed companies.

Key words: macroeconomic uncertainty, overinvestment, underinvestment, scope of strategic change

Wang Zhenjie, Wang Jing. Macroeconomic Uncertainty, the Scope of Strategic Change and Investment Behavior[J]. , 2018, 30(7): 207-217.

References

[1] Roberts N., Stockport G. Defining Strategic Flexibility[J]. Global Journal of Flexible Systems Management, 2009,10(1):27-32
[2] Minetti R., Peng T. Credit Policies, Macroeconomic Stability and Welfare:The Case of China[J]. Journal of Comparative Eco-nomics, 2016,8(7):1-18
[3] Scheffel E. Accounting for the Political Uncertainty Factor[J]. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2016,31(6):1048-1064
[4] Baker S., Bloom N., Davis S. J. Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty[J]. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2016,131(4):1593-1636
[5] Tsai I. The Source of global Stock Market Risk:A Viewpoint of Economic Policy Uncertainty[J]. Economic Modelling, 2017,60(1):122-131
[6] Fazzari S., Hubbard B. Petersen, Finance Constraints and Corporate Investment[J]. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1988,37(1):141-206
[7] Bontempi M., Golinelli R., Parigi G. Why Demand Uncertainty Curbs Investment:Evidence from a Panel of Italian Manufacturing Firms[J]. Journal of Macroeconomics, 2010,32(1):218-238
[8] 王义中,宋敏. 宏观经济不确定性、资金需求与公司投资[J]. 经济研究, 2014,(2):4-11
[9] Kang W., Lee K., Ratti R. A Economic Policy Uncertainty and Firm-Level Investment[J]. Journal of Macroeconomics, 2014,39(3):42-53
[10] Zhang G., Han J., Pan Z., et al. Economic Policy Uncertainty and Capital Structure Choice:Evidence from China[J]. Social Science Electronic Publishing, 2015,39(3):439-457
[11] Bernanke B., Gertler M. Agency Costs, Net Worth, and Business Fluctuations[J]. The American Economic Review, 1989,79(1):14-31
[12] Morikawa M. How Uncertainare Economic Policies? New Evidence from A Firm Survey[J]. Economic Analysis and Policy, 2016,52(12):114-122
[13] Reddy S. Strategic Flexibility and Information Technology Properties:Competitive Advantage and Asset Specificity[J]. Advances in Competitiveness Research, 2006,14(1):16-43
[14] Nitin P. Performance Implications of Strategic Changes:An Integrative Framework[J]. Business Horizons, 2015,58(3):295-304
[15] Kamasak R., Yavuz M., Karagulle A., et al. Importance of Strategic Flexibility on the Knowledge and Innovation Relationship:An Emerging Market Study[J]. Procedia-Social and Behavioral Sciences, 2016,229(8):126-132
[16] 戈亚群,刘益,李垣. 战略变化的特征研究[J]. 管理工程学报, 2007,21(2):1-4
[17] 杨艳,陈贻杰,陈收. 战略变革对企业绩效的影响:基于货币政策的调节作用[J]. 管理评论, 2015,27(1):66-75
[18] 苏敬勤,刘畅. 中国情境架构及作用机理——基于中国企业战略变革案例的质化研究[J]. 管理评论, 2015,27(10):218-229
[19] Nadkarni S., Herrmann P. CEO Personality, Strategic Flexibility, and Firm Performance:The Case of the Indian Business Process Outsourcing Industry[J]. Academy of Management Journal, 2010,53(5):1050-1073
[20] Cingöz A., Akdo?an A. Strategic Flexibility, Environmental Dynamism, and Innovation Performance:An Empirical Study[J]. Procedia Social and Behavioral Sciences, 2013,99(11):582-589
[21] Wang Y. Z., Chen C. R., Huang Y. S. Economic Policy Uncertainty and Corporate Investment:Evidence from China[J]. Pacif-ic-Basin Finance Journal, 2014,26(3):227-243
[22] Colombo V. Economic Policy Uncertainty in the US:Does It Matter for the Euro Area?[J]. Economics Letters, 2013,121(1):39-42
[23] Pastor L., Veronesi P. Uncertainty about Government Policy and Stock Prices[J]. Journal of Finance, 2011,67(4):1219-1264
[24] Panousi V., Papanikolaou D. Investment, Idiosyncratic Risk, and Ownership[J]. Journal of Finance, 2012,67(3):1113-1148
[25] Yan C., Luis F. The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks in Emerging Economies[J]. Journal of International Economics, 2013,90(2):316-325
[26] 周黎安. 中国地方官员的晋升锦标赛模式研究[J]. 经济研究, 2007,(7):36-50
[27] Lloréns F., Molina L., Verdú A. Flexibility of Manufacturing Systems, Strategic Change and Performance[J]. International Jour-nal of Production Economics, 2005,98(3):273-289
[28] Talavera O., Tsapin A., Zholud O. Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Bank Lending:Thecase of Ukraine[J]. Economic Systems, 2012,36(2):279-293
[29] Boeker W. Strategic Change:the Influence of Managerial Characteristics and Organizational Growth[J]. Academy of Management Journal, 1997,40(1):152-170
[30] Richardson S. Over-Investment of Free Cash Flow[J]. Review of Accounting Studies, 2006,11(2):159-189
[31] 佟爱琴,马星洁. 宏观环境、产权性质与企业非效率投资[J]. 管理评论, 2013,25(9):12-20
[32] 孙工声. 中国宏观经济波动:内部调整还是外部冲击?[J]. 金融研究, 2009,(11):60-73
[33] Nishihara J. Macroeconomic Conditions and a Firm's Investment Decisions[J]. Finance Research Letter, 2014,11(4):398-409