管理评论

›› 2017, Vol. 29 ›› Issue (11): 216-226.

• 公共管理 • 上一篇    下一篇

农业废弃物第三方治理政府补贴政策效率的SD仿真

王翠霞1, 丁雄2, 贾仁安3, 周国珍4, 黄振侠4, 万里平5   

  1. 1. 江西财经大学信息管理学院, 南昌 330032;
    2. 江西财经大学软件与通信工程学院, 南昌 330032;
    3. 南昌大学系统工程研究所, 南昌 330047;
    4. 江西省农业厅, 南昌 330046;
    5. 江西正合环保工程有限公司, 新余 338008
  • 收稿日期:2017-06-19 出版日期:2017-11-28 发布日期:2017-11-25
  • 通讯作者: 王翠霞(通讯作者),江西财经大学信息管理学院副教授,硕士生导师,博士
  • 作者简介:丁雄,江西财经大学软件与通信工程学院讲师,博士;贾仁安,南昌大学系统工程研究所教授,博导;周国珍,江西省农业厅农村能源工作办公室处长;黄振侠,江西省农业厅农村能源工作办公室科长;万里平,江西正合环保工程有限公司总经理。
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金项目（71461010）。

SD Simulation on the Efficiency of Government Subsidy Policies for Third-party Management of Agricultural Waste

Wang Cuixia1, Ding Xiong2, Jia Renan3, Zhou Guozhen4, Huang Zhenxia4, Wan Liping5   

  1. 1. School of Information Technology, Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics, Nanchang 330032;
    2. School of Software and Communication Engineering, Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics, Nanchang 330032;
    3. Institute of System Engineering, Nanchang University, Nanchang 330047;
    4. Department of Agriculture of Jiangxi Province, Nanchang 330046;
    5. Jiangxi ZhengHe Environmental Engineering Co., Xinyu 338008
  • Received:2017-06-19 Online:2017-11-28 Published:2017-11-25

PDF (PC)

518

摘要：

在国家系列文件的推动下，各地积极探索采用特许经营、投资补助及财政补贴的方式推行农业废弃物第三方治理模式，如何保障该模式的可持续运营是政府和学者共同关注的问题。本文以可持续运营作为政策补贴效率评价准则，采用入树子系统建模法构建农业废弃物第三方治理模式的系统动力学模型，设置相应的政府补贴政策参数；以江西正和环保工程有限公司罗坊农业废弃物集中治理大型沼气工程为例，通过政策参数调控，对集中供气/沼气发电上网特许价格、有机肥生产/价格补贴、发酵原料成本补贴三项政策的实施效率进行动态仿真分析。结果表明：当前的沼气特许价格能保障企业五年内实现集中供气目标规模；企业发电产能利用率与企业累计收益对沼气发电上网特许价格敏感；要实现有机肥商业化生产必须有合理的有机肥价格补贴。最后，依据政策效率仿真所确定的各政策参数取值参考区间，设计补贴方案，并利用SD仿真实验逐步调整优化补贴方案。

关键词: 农业废弃物, 第三方治理, 政策效率, 系统动力学仿真

Abstract:

Promoted by a series of national policies, agricultural waste management by third parties has been actively explored by the way of franchising, investment grants and financial subsidies in many parts of China. The issue of how to ensure sustainable operation of the mode is becoming a common concern of the government and scholars. This paper assumes the sustainable operation of the mode as a criterion for evaluating government policy efficiency, develops a system dynamics model and sets corresponding subsidy policy parameters to simulate the trend of five variables in organic fertilizer subsidy, concessionary price subsidy for biogas energy utilization (centralized supply as fuel or power generation), and biogas raw materials subsidy policy. The initial data used is collected from Luofang agricultural wastes governance large-scale biogas project of Jiangxi ZhengHe Environmental Engineering Co., LTD. The result shows that the current concession price of biogas can guarantee the target scale of centralized gas supply within five years; the power generation capacity utilization and the accumulative income of the third-party are sensitive to the concession price of biogas power generation network; there must be reasonable subsidies for organic fertilizer prices to realize the commercial production of organic fertilizer. Moreover, based on the results of three policies simulation and the reference range of the policy parameters, three comprehensive optimization scenarios are designed and simulated to investigate the optimal policy parameters.

Key words: agricultural waste, third-party management, policy efficiency, system dynamics simulation