城市居民住房消费选择中的“新房偏好”效应研究——基于分位数模型的反事实分解

›› 2017, Vol. 29 ›› Issue (11): 41-49.

城市居民住房消费选择中的“新房偏好”效应研究——基于分位数模型的反事实分解

黄静

上海师范大学商学院, 上海 200234

收稿日期:2016-08-01 出版日期:2017-11-28 发布日期:2017-11-25
作者简介:黄静,上海师范大学商学院副教授,博士。
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目（71373162；71403059）；上海师范大学第七期“城市经济学”和第九期“产业经济学”重点学科建设。

Study on the Effect of “First-hand Housing Preference” in the Housing Choice of Urban Residents

Huang Jing

School of Business, Shanghai Normal University, Shanghai 200234

Received:2016-08-01 Online:2017-11-28 Published:2017-11-25

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

我国城市居民在住房消费选择时是否偏好新建商品房?"新房偏好"效应有多大?文章采用上海市大型微观交易数据，分别建立新建商品房和二手房的Hedonic特征价格模型，利用分位数回归进行参数估计，然后应用反事实分解方法，剥离新旧住房价格差异中的"特征差异"，首创性地对高、中、低端不同价位层次住房的"新房偏好"效应进行研究。结果表明，我国城市居民住房购置时存在明显的"新房偏好"消费特征，"新房偏好"是新旧住房价格差异的主要来源。随着房价从低至高，"新房偏好"程度呈U形，在低端住房（40%分位数以下）和极高端住房（90%分位数以上）中"新房偏好"程度更高。

关键词: 住房价格, 特征价格模型, 分位数回归, 反事实分解

Abstract:

In China, urban residents prefer to buy new housing than second-hand housing. This paper studies the first-hand housing preference effect, using a large micro-transaction data based on the quantile regression method and the counterfactual decomposition analysis. The results show that there is an obvious first-hand housing preference effect. And the first-hand housing preference effect is the main source of the difference between the first-hand and the second-hand housing prices. With housing prices ranging from low to high, the first-hand housing preference effect degree is U-shaped. In the low-end housing (below 40% quintiles) and very high-end housing (above 90% quintiles), the first-hand housing preference effect is higher.

Key words: housing price, Hedonic price model, quantile regression, counterfactual decomposition

黄静. 城市居民住房消费选择中的“新房偏好”效应研究——基于分位数模型的反事实分解[J]. , 2017, 29(11): 41-49.

Huang Jing. Study on the Effect of “First-hand Housing Preference” in the Housing Choice of Urban Residents[J]. , 2017, 29(11): 41-49.

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