关键词: 供给侧改革, 债券, 煤炭行业, 马尔科夫区制转移模型

Abstract:

The supply-side reform,as an important national policy of China to cross the middle income trap in the new normal economy,changes the analysis logic of the bond market,especially in the coal industry.The excess capacity of China's coal industry in 2013,2014 and 2015 are 1.466 billion tons,1.449 billion tons and 2.500 billion tons respectively,with 2015 at a record high.By analyzing the factors that affect the coal industry spreads,we identify the specific impact of the supply-side reform on the coal industry bonds.The change in coal industry bonds investment logics occurred in September 2015.Before the supply-side reform,bond investors'investment logic was “on the market”,focusing on market risk and ignoring industry risks.After the supply-side reform,investors began to pay attention to industry analysis.The decrease of the coal prices and coal-industrial added values led to a significant increase in coal industry spreads.The supply-side reform requires investors to face up to the problems of excess capacity and high leverage ratios in excess capacity industries,rather than hide the risk.Investors should pay attention to industry risks and decrease the bond investment in the excess capacity industries to promote the structural transformation of the economy.The governments at each level should gradually break the implied guarantees of state-owned enterprises'bonds,and correctly deal with the relationship between the government and the market.

Key words: supply-side reform, bonds, coal industry, Markov switching regression model