管理评论

›› 2016, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (12): 3-13.

• 经济与金融管理 •    下一篇

互联网金融理财市场的需求扩散与购买决策研究

陈继勇1, 陈龙1, 陈君2   

  1. 1. 武汉大学经济与管理学院, 武汉 430072;
    2. 武汉大学信息管理学院, 武汉 430072
  • 收稿日期:2016-01-08 出版日期:2016-12-28 发布日期:2017-03-15
  • 通讯作者: 陈君(通讯作者),武汉大学信息管理学院副教授,博士
  • 作者简介:陈继勇,武汉大学经济与管理学院教授,博士生导师,博士;陈龙,武汉大学经济与管理学院博士研究生。
  • 基金资助:

    国家社会科学基金重大攻关项目（16ZDA039）；国家自然科学基金项目（71202120）；国家社会科学基金重大项目（15ZDA061）；武汉大学青年学者学术发展计划“大数据与商业分析”学术团队资助。

Research on Demand Diffusion and Purchase Decision in the Internet Financial Market

Chen Jiyong1, Chen Long1, Chen Jun2   

  1. 1. Economics and Management School of Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072;
    2. Information Management School of Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072
  • Received:2016-01-08 Online:2016-12-28 Published:2017-03-15

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摘要：

互联网金融理财市场发展迅速，对传统银行业带来了冲击，市场需求和购买决策的变化将影响市场的发展与繁荣。文章构建了需求扩散模型，结合进化博弈理论进一步构建了购买决策分析模型，在量化分析2013至2015年市场数据的基础上，将市场发展分为两个阶段，并进行了实证研究。结果表明：市场发展第一阶段的特征明显，分析模型具有较高的适用性和实用性；市场中逐利性购买决策与依赖性购买决策比例约为1：9；购买决策对渠道的依赖较强，但逐利性决策更理性；市场竞争出现后，渠道依赖性决策首先发生改变，而逐利性决策随长期投资回报的差异而变化。最后，文章提出对策建议，指出市场“新常态”值得继续关注，为互联网金融研究提供了思路和参考，为市场发展和创新提供了理论依据。

关键词: 互联网金融, 需求扩散, 购买决策, 进化博弈

Abstract:

Demand and purchase are driving the fast growing Internet finance that has tremendously shocked the traditional banking. Based on General Bass Model and Evolutionary Game Theory, this paper constructs a market demand diffusion model and purchase decision model of the monetary market fund, then analyzes and discusses the Chinese market through the data from 2013 to 2015. According to the results, the analytical model is applicable to the first stage of the market development; the ratio between dependent purchase decisions and profit-driven purchase decisions is 9:1; dependent decisions are significantly impacted by the distribution channels and the profit-driven purchase decisions are more rational; in the competitive market, dependent decisions change before the profit-driven decisions as the latter is impacted by long-term return ratio. Finally suggestions are provided for market participants to adapt themselves to the "newly normal" market. This paper may contribute to the theoretical analysis and the market innovation development of Internet finance.

Key words: Internet finance, demand diffusion, purchase decision, evolutionary game