管理评论

›› 2016, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (10): 58-66.

• 经济与金融管理 • 上一篇    下一篇

国家级创新型城市创新能力的动态演进——基于技术成就指数的研究

许治, 陈丽玉   

  1. 华南理工大学工商管理学院, 广州 510640
  • 收稿日期:2014-08-29 出版日期:2016-10-28 发布日期:2016-10-31
  • 作者简介:许治,华南理工大学工商管理学院教授,博士生导师,博士;陈丽玉,华南理工大学工商管理学院,硕士。
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金重点项目（71233003）；教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目（12JZD042）；国家自然科学基金项目（71573091）；教育部人文社会科学研究一般项目（14YJA630076）。

National Innovation-oriented Cities' Dynamic Evolution of Innovation Capability-Based on the Research in Technological Achievements Index

Xu Zhi, Chen Liyu   

  1. School of Business Administration, South China University of Technology, Guangzhou 510640
  • Received:2014-08-29 Online:2016-10-28 Published:2016-10-31

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摘要：

本文基于UNDP创立的技术成就指数，测度了21个国家级创新型城市2001-2011年技术成就指数，并利用核密度与马尔可夫链方法，分析21个国家级创新型城市技术成就指数分布变动特征与最终稳态分布情况。研究分析得出：样本期内21个国家级创新型城市技术成就指数持续增长，但城市间的差距也在不断扩大，并在2006年之后差距扩大有加剧的趋势。长期来看，21个国家级创新型城市技术成就指数演进路径和变动程度相对平缓，最终的稳态分布将是两极弱化，中间强化。对于中高水平组发展的重点是创新环境的塑造与企业创新主体地位的增强；对于低水平发展组发展的重点则是通过政策引导促进区域创新中心的形成与完善；从深圳市在样本期内领先优势持续增强方面，建议国家采用具有可持续性的市场驱动型创新型城市建设模式。

关键词: 创新型城市, 技术成就指数, Kernel密度, 马尔可夫链

Abstract:

Based on Technology Achievement Index established by UNDP in 2011, this paper measures the Technology Achievement Index of China's 21 national innovative cities during 2001-2011, and analyzes its changing distribution characteristics and final steady distribution state by using kernel density estimation and Markov chain analysis methods. Results show that the Technology Achievement Index of China's 21 national innovative cities continually grow, but the gap between cities is expanding, especially after 2006. In long term, the evolution path of Technology Achievement Index of China'ss 21 national innovative cities is relatively flat:the probability for cities at a low level to achieve substantive development is low; the final steady-state distribution will be weakening poles and strengthening middle group. For the high level group, the key to its development is to shape the innovation environment and to enhance dominant position for enterprise innovation; for the low level group, the key to its development is to form and improve regional innovation center through policy guidance.

Key words: innovative cities, technology achievement index, kernel density estimation, Markov chains