管理评论

›› 2012, Vol. 24 ›› Issue (2): 36-44.

• 风险管理与系统工程专题 • 上一篇    下一篇

会计稳健性是否会影响分析师盈余预测行为——来自中国证券市场的证据

肖斌卿1 ,郑莉莉2 ,李心丹1,朱文俊3   

  1. 1．南京大学工程管理学院，南京 210093；2．交通银行，上海 200120；3．泰君安证券股份有限公司证券衍生品投资部，上海 200120
  • 收稿日期:2012-06-19 修回日期:2012-06-19 出版日期:2012-02-25 发布日期:2012-06-20

Does Accounting Conservatism Affect Analysts’ Earnings Forecast?

  1. 1.School of Engineering Management, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093; 2.Bank of Communications, Shanghai 200120; 3.Securities Derivative Investment Department of Guotai Junan Securities Co., Ltd., Shanghai 200120
  • Received:2012-06-19 Revised:2012-06-19 Online:2012-02-25 Published:2012-06-20

摘要： 已有研究显示分析师通常在公司盈余发布之前做出乐观预测而导致预测偏差。运用中国A股市场的数据，检验分析师进行盈余预测时是否考虑到会计稳健性的相关信息。以不对称时间及时性（AT）和资产负债表准备金（BSR）作为会计稳健性代理变量，采用最小二乘法和最小绝对值偏差法等方法，在控制了一些被认为是影响分析师预测误差的因素后，发现分析师预测并未考虑到不对称时间及时性（“好消息”和“坏消息”）影响，且预测误差与资产负债表准备金额呈负关联。研究表明没有考虑到会计稳健性是中国证券分析师盈余预测偏差的一个原因。

关键词: 分析师盈余预测, 会计稳健性, 不对称时间及时性（AT）, 资产负债表准备金（BSR）

Abstract:  Prior studies find that analysts often issue optimistic forecasts before the issue of companies’ earnings, and thus lead to forecast bias. With the sample from Chinese stock market and methods of ordinary least squares (OLS) and the least absolute deviation (LAD) regressions, the paper tests whether analysts’ earnings forecasts take account of the implications of accounting conservatism. After controlling those elements thought to affect analysts’ forecast, we find that forecasts’ under-reaction to bad vs. good news is negatively related to the magnitude of BSR. This evidence demonstrates that, in general, analysts’ earnings forecasts do not fully take account of the implications of accounting conservatism.

Key words: analysts&rsquo, earnings forecast, accounting conservatism, asymmetric timeliness, balance sheet reserves