关键词: 货币政策, 理性和适应性预期, SVAR, 脉冲响应函数, 房地产市场

Abstract:

In this paper we study the way that monetary policy passes in the real estate market, analyze the monetary and credits channels of monetary policy and factor market participants' expectations into the model. Through theoretical analysis and empirical tests, we find that: the most important factor that affect the prices of the real estate market is market expectations, followed by monetary channels, and the credit channel has a limited impact on the real estate industry; to the residents, the fluctuations in the real estate market prices at the same time has the wealth effect and the crowding-out effect and, at present, the strength of both effects is evenly matched, so the impact of the real estate market has no significant effect on the consumption of the residents; at the same time, the consumption growth has its own laws and it is not affected by the impact of external policy shocks; deposit reserve ratio is an effective tool to regulate the total commercial bank credit; monetary channels and the market is expected to easily form a closed-loop contact and thus form a bubble in the economic boom period, so the rigidness and consistency monetary policy shall be insisted on for the formation of rational expectations.

Key words: monetary policy, rational and adaptive expectations, SVAR, impulse response function, real estate market