关键词: 减税政策, 地方财政韧性, 税债替代, 地方债务风险

Abstract: Against the backdrop of slowing economic growth and the continuous implementation of proactive fiscal policies, balancing the economic stimulus effects of tax reduction policies with the stable operation of local finances has become a core issue. This paper systematically examines the relationship between the short-term fiscal risks and long-term fiscal resilience associated with tax reduction policies, and explains the transmission role of local government debt scale in this process. Using panel data from 111 prefecture-level cities in China from 2017 to 2021, the study constructs a comprehensive evaluation system for fiscal resilience and empirically tests the pathways through which tax reduction policies affect local fiscal resilience. The results show that the “tax-debt substitution” phenomenon triggered by tax reduction policies leads to an expansion of local government debt. This debt expansion exerts a dual impact on regional economies and fiscal resilience through crowding-out and multiplier effects: it crowds out private investment in the financing stage, while generating a multiplier effect through public investment in the expenditure stage. The net effect is positive, ultimately enhancing fiscal resilience. Additionally, the crowding-out effect exhibits structural differences: local government debt significantly suppresses new borrowing by private enterprises, while its impact on non-private enterprises is not significant. The study concludes that tax reduction policies significantly enhance local fiscal resilience through the transmission mechanism of “tax reduction—debt adjustment—economic quality improvement—sustainable fiscal revenue.” This paper provides policy insights for further improving the tax reduction policy system, mitigating local government debt risks, and strengthening fiscal resilience governance.

Key words: tax reduction policy, local fiscal resilience, tax-debt substitution, local debt risk