企业衰退对创新活动影响的传导机制研究：冗余资源双路径调节的中介机制

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 受国际供应链重塑、预期转弱、地缘冲突等诸多因素影响，企业所可能面临的衰退问题日益严峻。创新既是推动我国制造企业转型、迈向高质量发展的重要动力，也是扭转衰退的重要途径，但面临衰退，企业间的创新活动却表现出了较大的行为差异。针对于此，基于2013—2020年中国上市制造企业数据，运用层级回归分析、Bootstrap等方法探析了企业衰退对创新变革活动影响的传导路径和冗余资源对其的干预机制。研究发现：企业衰退借由风险偏好的改变，影响创新变革，风险承担性完全遮掩了衰退对创新变革的影响作用，而风险承担性的这一中介作用机制又受企业自身所拥有的冗余资源状态影响；冗余资源双路径调节了风险承担性的中介作用，具体表现为：一方面，抑制了企业衰退对风险承担性的正向刺激作用；另一方面，又推动了风险承担性对创新变革的促进作用。相关研究发现可为面临资源缩减和合法性下降双重困境下衰退企业的创新复苏提供实践启示。

关键词: 衰退企业, 冗余资源, 创新变革, 风险承担性

Abstract: Due to multiple factors such as the COVID-19 pandemic, weakened expectations, and geopolitical conflicts, an increasing number of firms are experiencing organizational decline. Innovation is not only a key driver of the upgrading and high-quality development of Chinese manufacturing firms, but also an important means of reversing declining performance. However, in the face of decline, firms exhibit considerable heterogeneity in their innovation activities. This study utilizes panel data from Chinese listed manufacturing firms from 2013 to 2020 and employs hierarchical regression analysis and Bootstrap methods to examine the mechanisms of how organizational decline influences innovation activities, as well as the moderating role of slack resources. The results indicate that organizational decline does not directly promote innovation activities; rather, it influences them by altering firms’ risk preferences. Risk-taking fully mediates the effect of organizational decline on innovation activities, and this mediating effect is contingent upon the firm’s slack resources. Specifically, slack resources play a dual-path moderating role in the mediating effect of risk-taking: on the one hand, they weaken the positive impact of organizational decline on risk-taking, while on the other hand, they enhance the positive effect of risk-taking on innovation activities. These findings provide practical insights for the innovation recovery of declining firms facing the dual challenges of resource reduction and eroding organizational legitimacy.

Key words: declining firms, slack resources, innovation activities, risk-taking

黄训江. 企业衰退对创新活动影响的传导机制研究：冗余资源双路径调节的中介机制[J]. 管理评论, 2025, 37(10): 63-75.

Huang Xunjiang. Research on the Mechanism of How a Firm’s Decline Influences Its Innovation Activities: The Dual-path Moderating Roles of Slack Resources[J]. Management Review, 2025, 37(10): 63-75.

参考文献

[1] Carmeli A., Sheaffer Z. How Leadership Characteristics Affect Organizational Decline and Downsizing[J]. Journal of Business Ethics, 2009,86(3):363-378
[2] Trahms C. A., Ndofor H. A., Sirmon D. G. Organizational Decline and Turnaround: A Review and Agenda for Future Research[J]. Journal of Management, 2013,39(5):1277-1307
[3] Latham S. F., Braun M. Managerial Risk, Innovation, and Organizational Decline[J]. Journal of Management, 2009,35(2):258-281
[4] 阎海峰,杨昕悦,张骁. 衰退企业“临危受命”CEO如何实现业绩反转——基于模糊集定性比较分析[J]. 南开管理评论, 2024,27(3):61-70 Yan H. F., Yang X. Y., Zhang X. How do New CEOs Steer Declining Enterprises to a Successful Turnaround? Based on the Fuzzy Set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (fsQCA)[J]. Nankai Business Review, 2024,27(3):61-70
[5] McKinley W., Latham S., Braun M. Organizational Decline and Innovation: Turnarounds and Downward Spirals[J]. Academy of Management Review, 2014,39(1):88-110
[6] Han S. The Effect of Performance Feedback on Strategic Alliance Formation and R&D Intensity[J]. European Management Journal, 2023,41(5):709-719
[7] Barbero J. L., Martínez J. A., Moreno A. M. Should Declining Firms Be Aggressive during the Retrenchment Process[J]. Journal of Management, 2020,46(5):694-725
[8] Deb P., David P., O’Brien J. P., et al. Attainment Discrepancy and Investment: Effects on Firm Performance[J]. Journal of Business Research, 2019,99:186-196
[9] Tversky A., Kahneman D. Advances in Prospect Theory: Cumulative Representation of Uncertainty[J]. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 1992,5(4):297-323
[10] Staw B. M., Sandelands L. E., Dutton J. E. Threat Rigidity Effects in Organizational Behavior: A Multilevel Analysis[J]. Administrative Science Quarterly, 1981,26(4):501-524
[11] 唐朝永,彭灿,林琳. 组织衰落与组织创新:管理者风险规避与制度化组织使命的作用[J]. 研究与发展管理, 2018,30(1):34-46 Tang C. Y., Peng C., Lin L. Organization Decline and Organizational Innovation: Role of Managers’ Risk Aversion and Institutionalized Organizational Mission[J]. R&D Management, 2018,30(1):34-46
[12] Graham J. R., Harvey C. R., Rajgopal S. The Economic Implications of Corporate Financial Reporting[J]. Journal of Accounting and Economics, 2005,40(1-3):3-73
[13] 贺小刚,邓浩,吕斐斐,等. 期望落差与企业创新的动态关系——冗余资源与竞争威胁的调节效应分析[J]. 管理科学学报, 2017,20(5):13-34 He X. G., Deng H., Lv F. F., et al. Dynamic Relationship between Negative Attainment Discrepancy and R&D Investments: Moderating Effect of Organizational Slack and Competitive Threat[J]. Journal of Management Sciences in China, 2017,20(5):13-34
[14] 刘力钢,姜莉莉. 企业衰落与创新行为的关系研究——冗余资源与CEO任期的调节效应[J]. 科研管理, 2022,43(8):119-128 Liu L. G., Jiang L. L. Research on the Relationship between Enterprise Decline and Innovation Behavior—The Moderating Effect of Slack Resources and CEO Tenure[J]. Science Research Management, 2022,43(8):119-128
[15] 连燕玲,贺小刚,高皓. 业绩期望差距与企业战略调整——基于中国上市公司的实证研究[J]. 管理世界, 2014,(11):119-132 Lian Y. L., He X. G., Gao H. The Performance Aspiration Gap and the Strategy Adjustment: A Case Study Based on China’s Listed Companies[J]. Journal of Management World, 2014,(11):119-132
[16] Liang X., Barker V. L., Schepker D. J. Chief Executive Cognition, Turnaround Strategy and Turnaround Attempts of Declining Firms[J]. Journal of Change Management, 2018,18(4):304-326
[17] Wallace E., Buil I. Antecedents and Consequences of Conspicuous Green Behavior on Social Media: Incorporating the Virtual Self-identity into the Theory of Planned Behavior[J]. Journal of Business Research, 2023,157:113549
[18] Chen W. R., Miller K. D. Situational and Institutional Determinants of Firms’ R&D Search Intensity[J]. Strategic Management Journal, 2007,28(4):369-381
[19] Huang L., Ma M., Wang X. Clan Culture and Risk-taking of Chinese Enterprises[J]. China Economic Review, 2022,72:101763
[20] Gao Y., Yang H., Zhang M. Too Bad to Fear, Too Good to Dare? Performance Feedback and Corporate Misconduct[J]. Journal of Business Research, 2021,131:1-11
[21] 焦豪,杨季枫,金宇珂. 企业消极反馈对战略变革的影响机制研究——基于动态能力和冗余资源的调节效应[J]. 管理科学学报, 2022,25(8):22-44 Jiao H., Yang J. F., Jin Y. K. Negative Feedback and Firm Strategic Change: The Moderating Effect of Dynamic Capabilities and Slack Resources[J]. Journal of Management Sciences in China, 2022,25(8):22-44
[22] Lim E. CEO Option Wealth and Firm Risk-taking: An Analysis of Multiple Reference Points[J]. Long Range Planning, 2017,50(6):809-825
[23] Adler R. W., Chaston K. Stakeholders’ Perceptions of Organizational Decline[J]. Accounting Forum, 2002,26(1):31-44
[24] Schmitt A., Raisch S. Corporate Turnarounds: The Duality of Retrenchment and Recovery[J]. Journal of Management Studies, 2013,50(7):1216-1244
[25] 于飞,刘明霞,王凌峰,等. 知识耦合对制造企业绿色创新的影响机理——冗余资源的调节作用[J]. 南开管理评论, 2019,22(3):54-65 Yu F., Liu M. X., Wang L. F., et al. Impact of Knowledge Couplings on Manufacturing Firms’ Green Innovation: The Moderating Effect of Slack Resources[J]. Nankai Business Review, 2019,22(3):54-65
[26] 刘诗源,林志帆,冷志鹏. 税收激励提高企业创新水平了吗?——基于企业生命周期理论的检验[J]. 经济研究, 2020,55(6):105-121 Liu S. Y., Lin Z. F., Leng Z. P. Whether Tax Incentives Stimulate Corporate Innovation: Empirical Evidence Based on Corporate Life Cycle Theory[J]. Economic Research Journal, 2020,55(6):105-121
[27] Tangpong C., Abebe M., Li Z. A Temporal Approach to Retrenchment and Successful Turnaround in Declining Firms[J]. Journal of Management Studies, 2015,52(5):647-677
[28] Barker V. L., Barr P. S. Linking Top Manager Attributions to Strategic Reorientation in Declining Firms Attempting Turnarounds[J]. Journal of Business Research, 2002,55(12):963-979
[29] Ndofor H. A., Vanevenhoven J., Barker III V. L. Software Firm Turnarounds in the 1990s: An Analysis of Reversing Decline in a Growing, Dynamic Industry[J]. Strategic Management Journal, 2013,34(9):1123-1133
[30] O’Kane C., Cunningham J. Turnaround Leadership Core Tensions during the Company Turnaround Process[J]. European Management Journal, 2014,32(6):963-980
[31] Tangpong C., Lehmberg D., Li Z. CEO Replacement, Top Management Vacancy, and the Sequence of Top Management Team Changes in High Technology Turnaround Companies[J]. Long Range Planning, 2024,57(1):102103
[32] Miller K. D., Bromiley P. Strategic Risk and Corporate Performance: An Analysis of Alternative Risk Measures[J]. The Academy of Management Journal, 1990,33(4):756-779
[33] Weng D. H., Kim K. H. Letting Go or Pushing Forward: Director Death and Firm Risk-taking[J]. Long Range Planning, 2023,56(3):102322
[34] Chen S., Chen Y., Zhang D., et al. Can Minority Investor Activism Promote Corporate Risk-taking? Evidence From a Quasi-natural Experiment in China[J]. International Review of Financial Analysis, 2023,85:102430
[35] 李小荣,张瑞君. 股权激励影响风险承担：代理成本还是风险规避？[J]. 会计研究, 2014,(1):57-63 Li X. R., Zhang R. J. Equity Incentives Influence Risk-taking: Agency Cost or Risk Averse？[J]. Accounting Research, 2014,(1):57-63
[36] 吕可夫,于明洋,阮永平. 兼听则明,偏信则暗——供应链网络中心性与企业风险承担[J]. 管理评论, 2023,35(7):266-280 Lv K. F., Yu M. Y., Ruan Y. P. If You Listen to Both Sides, You will Be Wise—Supply Chain Network Centrality and Enterprise Risk-taking[J]. Management Review, 2023,35(7):266-280
[37] 孙永波,丁沂昕,杜双. 冗余资源、资源拼凑与创业机会识别的非线性关系研究[J]. 科研管理, 2022,43(1):105-113 Sun Y. B., Ding Y. X., Du S. The Research on the Nonlinear Relationship among Slack Resources, Resource Bricolage and Entrepreneurial Opportunity Identification[J]. Science Research Management, 2022,43(1):105-113
[38] Greve H. R. Positional Rigidity: Low Performance and Resource Acquisition in Large and Small Firms[J]. Strategic Management Journal, 2011,32(1):103-114
[39] 刘建国. 绩效衰退与企业创新行为——基于中国上市公司的实证分析[J]. 南开管理评论, 2017,20(4):140-152 Liu J. G. Analysis on Recession Enterprise Innovation Drive and the Output Elasticity: Evidence from Chinese Listed Companies[J]. Nankai Business Review, 2017,20(4):140-152
[40] Situmeang F. B. I., Gemser G., Wijnberg N. M., et al. Risk-taking Behavior of Technology Firms: The Role of Performance Feedback in the Video Game Industry[J]. Technovation, 2016,54:22-34
[41] Baron R. M., Kenny D. A. The Moderator-Mediator Variable Distinction in Social Psychological Research: Conceptual, Strategic, and Statistical Considerations[J]. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 1986,51(6):1173-1182
[42] 温忠麟,叶宝娟. 中介效应分析:方法和模型发展[J]. 心理科学进展, 2014,22(5):731-745 Wen Z. L., Ye B. J. Analyses of Mediating Effects: The Development of Methods and Models[J]. Advances in Psychological Science, 2014,22(5):731-745
[43] Muller D., Judd C. M., Yzerbyt V. Y. When Moderation Is Mediated and Mediation Is Moderated[J]. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 2005,89(6):852-863
[44] Preacher K. J., Hayes A. F. Asymptotic and Resampling Strategies for Assessing and Comparing Indirect Effects in Multiple Mediator Models[J]. Behavior Research Methods, 2008,40(3):879-891
[45] Scaringella L. Involvement of “Ostensible Customers” in Really New Innovation: Failure of a Start-up[J]. Journal of Engineering and Technology Management, 2017,43:1-18