京津冀地区的产业转移与协同减排

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 本文从产业链视角，区分行业异质性，提出了基于地区间投入产出模型的产业转移及其影响的测算方法，实证测算了京津冀地区内部和整体的产业转移对三地环境和增加值的影响。测算结果表明：①京津冀地区整体和内部转移的产业存在较大异质性，产业转移对京津冀三地的环境净影响和经济净影响方向并不一致。②京津冀地区整体在2007—2012年和2012—2017年间分别经历了服务业转入和工业转出的过程，使京津冀地区总碳排放和增加值量先增加后减少。③2012—2017年，京津冀协同发展和“非首都核心功能外迁”相关政策在促进京津冀地区整体的经济增长的同时，也促成了地区内部的产业转移，承接资源密集型制造业产业迁入的河北省碳排放总量显著增加，地区整体的碳排放效率降低。④2018年以来，京津冀地区内部多数制造业，特别是以石油加工及炼焦、有色金属冶炼加工为代表的资源密集型制造业仍持续从北京市或天津市向河北省转移，考虑三地低碳技术的差距，产业转移对三地碳排放总量的负向影响仍将持续。本文的测算结果为“双碳”目标下产业迁入和迁出地的协同减排相关政策制定提供了科学参考。

关键词: 京津冀地区, 产业转移, 投入产出模型, 协同减排

Abstract: From the perspective of the industrial chain, this paper distinguishes the heterogeneity of industries, proposes a framework of measurement for industrial transfer and its impact based on the inter-regional input-output model, and quantifies the impact of industrial transfer of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region on the value-added and carbon emissions by three regions. The results are as follows. (1) There is significant heterogeneity in the overall and internal transfer of industries in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, and the net impacts of industrial transfer on the value-added and carbon emissions are not consistent across regions. (2) The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region as a whole experienced the processes of service transfer-in from 2012 to 2017 and industrial transfer-out from 2012 to 2017 respectively, leading to net increases and net decreases of both added value and carbon emissions of the whole region for the corresponding periods. (3) From 2012 to 2017, the coordinated development of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and the related policies of “relocation of non-capital core functions” not only promoted the overall economic growth of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, but also led to an overall increase in carbon emissions of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region through industrial transfer. In addition, this significantly increased the total carbon emissions of Hebei Province, which undertook the relocation of resource-intensive manufacturing industries. (4) Since 2018, a lot of the manufacturing industries, especially the resource-intensive manufacturing industries such as petroleum processing, coking, and non-ferrous metal smelting and processing, have continued to transfer from Beijing or Tianjin to Hebei Province. Considering the gap in low-carbon technologies among the three regions, the negative impact of industrial transfer on the total carbon emissions of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebeii region as a whole may continue. The results of this paper provide a scientific reference for the formulation of policies related to coordinated emission reductions between the transfer-in and transfer-out areas under the “Dual Carbon” goal.

Key words: Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, industrial transfer, input-output model, coordinated emissions reductions

蒋雪梅, 欧阳瑾, 赵文睿. 京津冀地区的产业转移与协同减排[J]. 管理评论, 2025, 37(2): 44-56.

Jiang Xuemei, Ouyang Jin, Zhao Wenrui. Industrial Transfer and Coordinated Emissions Reductions in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region[J]. Management Review, 2025, 37(2): 44-56.

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