COVID-19疫情对中国城市PM2.5的短期影响

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 为评估COVID-19疫情对中国城市PPM_2.5的影响，综合经验模态分解法和时变双重差分法，本文构建重大事件对空气污染影响多尺度评估模型。该模型能有效地将短期随机波动与长期趋势和事件冲击区分，进而更准确评估重大事件对于空气污染的影响。以2018年11月—2020年5月295个中国地级以上城市PPM_2.5日均浓度和气象信息数据集为研究样本，研究结果表明：COVID-19疫情出现导致196个城市PPM_2.5产生了结构性变化，并且不同城市对COVID-19疫情的响应效率不同。COVID-19疫情期间中国295个地级以上城市中155个城市PPM_2.5浓度显著下降10.66 μg/m³，这很大程度上归因于中国城市封控政策。与未封城城市相比，实施封城政策的城市PPM_2.5浓度平均下降7.4497 μg/m³，且不同城市区域差异明显。封城对中国城市PM_2.5污染的改善效应是一种短期效应。政府的政策干预短期内改善了PPM_2.5污染程度，但同时付出了巨大的经济代价。因此，政府应采取更可持续性的措施来解决环境污染问题。

关键词: COVID-19疫情, PM_2.5浓度, 短期影响, 封城, 经验模态分解, 时变双重差分

Abstract: This paper quantifies environmental impact of extreme event in urban China by integrating empirical mode decomposition (EMD) with time-varying difference-in-differences (DID) approach. Our approach allows us to separate short-term random fluctuation from long-term trend and event shock, and thus improves the precision of the subsequent impact estimation. Using data on the daily PM_2.5 concentrations and climate variations in 295 cities at the prefectural level from November 2018 to May 2020, the results show that the outbreak of COVID-19 caused structural changes of PM_2.5 in 196 cities, and the response efficiencies across cities varied greatly. During the COVID-19 period, a significant decline of PM_2.5 concentrations by 10.66 μg/m³ in 155 out of 295 cities, largely attributable to the city level lockdown. Compared with unlocked cities, PM_2.5 dropped by 7.45 μg/m³ on average in cities with lockdown policy, with significant regional variations. Lockdown plays a short-term effect on the improvement of PM_2.5 in Chinese cities. The temporary air quality improvement is achieved at tremendous economic cost. Therefore, governments shall address environmental pollution with more sustainable measures rather than city lockdown.

Key words: COVID-19, PM_2.5, short-term impact, lockdown, empirical mode decomposition, time-varying difference-in-differences

曹婷, 朱帮助, 王平. COVID-19疫情对中国城市PM_2.5的短期影响[J]. 管理评论, 2024, 36(10): 250-259.

Cao Ting, Zhu Bangzhu, Wang Ping. Short-term Impacts of COVID-19 on PM_2.5 in Urban China[J]. Management Review, 2024, 36(10): 250-259.

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