资本驱动“粘性”、隐含碳跨期转移与动态消费碳足迹

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 中国经济发展长期依赖固定资本投入，固定资本构成的多样性及其使用的长期性决定了其隐含碳转移的复杂性。传统隐含碳转移研究主要基于生产和消费在空间上的分离，通常以贸易作为隐含碳的研究对象，鲜有研究涉及隐含碳的跨期转移，其跨期转移可通过资本形成-使用的动态性进行分析。本文利用2003—2020年的资本流量矩阵，在投入产出分析中将资本内生化，通过资本折旧矩阵追踪资本使用过程中隐含碳的跨期转移，并以最终消费作为碳排放核算依据，将其称为动态消费碳足迹。研究发现，中国累积了大量可用于未来生产的固定资本，动态消费碳足迹约为传统消费碳足迹的62%~77%，减少的部分将体现在未来消费中；动态消费碳足迹的部门分布更为均衡，第三产业部门的碳足迹显著上升且与其增加值基本匹配，电热产供和设备仪器部门是减排的关键部门；在考虑固定资本折旧引致的碳排放后，消费碳足迹的大小不仅取决于当前生产的碳强度，还取决于当前生产在多大程度上依赖以往形成的固定资本及以往生产的碳强度，因此，改变固定资产使用年限的政策可在一定程度上减少动态消费碳足迹，这可为相关政策制定者提供参考。

关键词: 固定资本隐含碳, 跨期转移, 动态消费碳足迹, 投入产出分析

Abstract: China’s economic development has long relied on fixed capital input, and the diversity of fixed capital composition and the long-term nature of its use determines the complexity of its embodied carbon transfer. While previous studies have focused on the spatial separation of production and consumption, with trade as the primary focus, there has been a lack of research on the intertemporal transfer of hidden carbon. This can be studied by analyzing the dynamics of capital formation and utilization. In this paper, the capital flow matrix from 2003 to 2020 is used to internalize capital in input-output analysis, and the capital depreciation matrix is used to track the intertemporal transfer of implied carbon in the process of capital use, which is defined as the dynamic consumption carbon footprint. The findings indicate that China has accumulated a significant amount of fixed capital that can be used for future production. The carbon footprint of dynamic consumption is approximately 62% to 77% of that of traditional consumption, with the reduced portion being reflected in future consumption. The sector distribution of the carbon footprint of dynamic consumption is more balanced, with a significant increase in the carbon footprint of the tertiary industry sector, closely aligned with its value added. The key sectors for emission reduction are electric heating production and supply, as well as the equipment and instruments sectors. When considering the carbon emissions caused by the depreciation of fixed capital, the size of the carbon footprint of consumption depends not only on the carbon intensity of current production but also on the extent to which current production relies on past-formed fixed capital and the carbon intensity of previous production. Therefore, policies that modify the service life of fixed assets can partially reduce the dynamic carbon footprint of consumption. This study provides a reference for relevant policymakers.

Key words: capital embodied carbon, intertemporal transfer, dynamic carbon footprint, input-output analysis

丁辰鑫, 孙慧, 王芝炜, 宫圆圆, 闫新杰, 沈云鹏. 资本驱动“粘性”、隐含碳跨期转移与动态消费碳足迹[J]. 管理评论, 2024, 36(9): 27-42.

Ding Chenxin, Sun Hui, Wang Zhiwei, Gong Yuanyuan, Yan Xinjie, Shen Yunpeng. Capital Driving “Stickiness”, Intertemporal Transfer of Embodied Carbon, and Dynamic Consumption Carbon Footprint[J]. Management Review, 2024, 36(9): 27-42.

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