全球价值链视域下汇率政策的中美博弈困境及应对

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 汇率政策作为一国货币当局进行宏观调控的一个集中体现，已经成为中美两国经贸领域角力的核心。美国倚赖美元优势地位压制中国在全球价值链上的崛起。因此，运用汇率政策摆脱美元霸权掣肘、攀升价值链成为中国构建新发展格局的关键。本文结合全球价值链框架下的汇率不完全传递特征，通过构建两国汇率政策博弈的一般性模型，剖析2008年全球金融危机和2020年疫情后中美汇率政策博弈的典型案例，验证发现，面对美国奉行保护主义的“胁迫”博弈，得益于扭转价值链分工地位的低端锁定局面，中国实现了从被动向主动应对的政策转变，却囿于美国内倾化的利益诉求而无法扩大各国的利益汇合点，导致不能达成以利益融合为原则的帕累托均衡。为了破解该困境，本文进一步以全球价值链的区域化重构趋势为着力点，论证构建以中国为主导的区域价值链，形成与区域内国家的博弈对称解是共赢选择。

关键词: 全球价值链, 区域价值链, 汇率政策

Abstract: The exchange rate policy, as a centralized manifestation of macroeconomic regulation by a country’s authorities, has become the core of the rivalry in the economic and trade fields between China and the United States. The United States relies on the dominant position of the US dollar to suppress China’s rise in the global value chain. Therefore, utilizing exchange rate policy to overcome the constraints of dollar hegemony and climb the value chain has become crucial for China in building a new development pattern. Based on the incomplete exchange rate pass-through under the framework of global value chain, this paper simulates the objective facts of exchange rate policy game between China and the United States by constructing a signaling game model, analyzes the typical cases of exchange rate policy game between the two countries after the global financial crisis in 2008 and the outbreak of the epidemic in 2020, and verifies that in the face of the protectionist “coercion” game behavior pursued by the United States, China has achieved a policy shift from passive acceptance to active response, thanks to the reversal of the low-end locking of the division of labor in the value chain. But it is hard to reach a Pareto equilibrium due to the inward-looking interests of the US. In order to break this game dilemma, this paper further takes the trend of regionalization of global value chains as the focus, and argues that building a regional value chain led by China and forming a symmetric solution to the game with regional countries is a win-win choice.

Key words: global value chain, regional value chain, exchange rate policy

严佳佳, 陈芳倩. 全球价值链视域下汇率政策的中美博弈困境及应对[J]. 管理评论, 2024, 36(9): 14-26.

Yan Jiajia, Chen Fangqian. The Game Dilemma between China and the United States in Exchange Rate Policy and Its Countermeasures from the Perspective of Global Value Chain[J]. Management Review, 2024, 36(9): 14-26.

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