基于时间价值的关键链项目资源缓冲设置方法

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 经典的关键链项目缓冲确定方法研究集中于时间缓冲，忽略了资源缓冲对项目的影响。为吸收资源随时间产生的不确定性并确定合理的资源缓冲尺寸，提出一种考虑时间价值的有尺寸的资源缓冲设置方法。首先，考虑资源效力随时间下降的风险提出资源时间价值的概念，结合风险暴露度衡量资源随时间产生的变化；其次，基于活动的持续时间和链路位置及对各类资源需求度确定设置资源缓冲的位置及时间，以在活动执行前预留实际数量资源的方式设置资源缓冲。最后，利用MATLAB进行蒙特卡洛模拟，验证本文方法的有效性。实验结果表明，这种有尺寸的资源缓冲设置方法能够保证活动执行时所需资源供应充足，有效减少项目缓冲消耗和缩短项目工期。

关键词: 项目管理, 关键链, 资源缓冲, 资源预留, 时间价值

Abstract: Classic researches on the critical chain project buffer sizing focus on the time buffer but ignore the impact of the resource buffer. In order to absorb the uncertainty of resources over time and determine a reasonable resource buffer size, a resource buffer sizing method is proposed based on time value. Firstly, the concept of resource time value is proposed considering the risk of resource effectiveness decreasing with time, and the changes of resources over time are calculated by combining the risk exposure. Secondly, the time of resource buffers are determined based on the duration and location of activities, and the location of resource buffers are determined based on the demand for resources. The resource buffers are set by reserving some resources before the execution of activities. Finally, Monte Carlo simulation is carried out by using MATLAB to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method. The experimental results indicate that this resource buffer sizing method can effectively reduce the consumption of project buffer and shorten the project duration.

Key words: project management, critical chain, resource buffer, resource reservation, time value

张俊光, 周尚. 基于时间价值的关键链项目资源缓冲设置方法[J]. 管理评论, 2024, 36(6): 212-218.

Zhang Junguang, Zhou Shang. Resource Buffer Sizing of Critical Chain Project Based on Time Value[J]. Management Review, 2024, 36(6): 212-218.

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