数字经济发展对居民消费的影响：基于中国城市面板数据的实证研究

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 当前，我国正处于由投资拉动转向消费驱动经济发展模式的转型阶段，伴随着生产方式的数字化重构，如何充分挖掘“数字红利”并提升居民消费成为了重要的现实难题。基于此，本文致力于探究数字经济发展对居民消费的影响及内在机制。具体地，本文基于2011—2019年232个城市形成的2088个城市-年的面板观测，通过构建面板固定效应模型和空间计量模型展开实证研究。研究结果表明：（1）数字经济发展通过“收入效应”和“创新效应”提振居民消费，该结论在排除内生性问题后依然成立；（2）数字经济发展提振邻近地区居民消费，存在积极的空间溢出效应；（3）数字经济发展对居民消费存在异质性影响，对于发展程度高的地区，数字经济发展对居民消费提振作用更强劲。本研究有助于深入理解数字经济发展的重要作用，为数字化转型过程中释放居民消费潜力提供重要理论依据与政策参考。

关键词: 数字经济发展, 居民消费, 居民收入, 区域创新水平, 空间面板模型

Abstract: China has been experimenting with the transition from an investment-driven economic development mode to a consumption-driven mode. With the digital reconstruction of production mode, it is practically imperative to address the challenging question of how to explore the “digital dividend” and improve residents’ consumption. Based on this, we aim to explore the impact of digital economy development on residents’ consumption and its internal mechanism. Specifically, we use the observation of the 2088 city-year panels formed by 232 cities from 2011 to 2019, and conduct an empirical research by building a panel fixed effect model and a spatial econometric model. The results show that: (1) the digital economy development can boost residents’ consumption through the “income effect” and the “innovation effect”, which is still true after eliminating endogenous problems; (2) the digital economy development has a significant impact on the residents’ consumption in neighboring areas, namely, a positive spatial spillover effect; (3) the digital economy has a heterogeneous impact on residents’ consumption. For highly-developed regions, the digital economy development has a more significant effect on consumption promotion. This study contributes to the in-depth understanding of the important role of digital economy development and provides an important theoretical basis and policy reference for the digital transformation to release the residents’ consumption potential.

Key words: digital economy development, residents’ consumption, residents’ income, regional innovation level, spatial panel model

王瑶瑶, 杨莹, 贾锐宁, 张晓空, 柴建. 数字经济发展对居民消费的影响：基于中国城市面板数据的实证研究[J]. 管理评论, 2024, 36(6): 67-80.

Wang Yaoyao, Yang Ying, Jia Ruining, Zhang Xiaokong, Chai Jian. The Impact of Digital Economy Development on Residents’ Consumption: An Empirical Study Based on City-level Panel Data in China[J]. Management Review, 2024, 36(6): 67-80.

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