中国碳排放权交易试点实施的政策有效性分析——来自PSM-DID与SCM的新证据

管理评论 ›› 2023, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (12): 308-318.

中国碳排放权交易试点实施的政策有效性分析——来自PSM-DID与SCM的新证据

李治国, 车帅, 王军

中国石油大学(华东)经济管理学院, 青岛 266580

收稿日期:2020-07-31 出版日期:2023-12-28 发布日期:2024-01-30
通讯作者: 车帅（通讯作者），中国石油大学（华东）经济管理学院博士研究生。
作者简介:李治国，中国石油大学（华东）经济管理学院副教授，硕士生导师，博士；王军，中国石油大学（华东）经济管理学院教授，博士生导师，博士。
基金资助:
国家社会科学基金项目（22BJL056）；中国石油大学（华东）研究生创新基金项目和中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助（23CX04004A）。

Analysis of the Effectiveness of Carbon Emission Trading Pilot Policies in China——New Evidence from PSM-DID and SCM

Li Zhiguo, Che Shuai, Wang Jun

School of Economics and Management, China University of Petroleum (East China), Qingdao 266580

Received:2020-07-31 Online:2023-12-28 Published:2024-01-30

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 基于中国各省份2000—2018年面板数据，运用倾向得分匹配双重差分方法与合成控制法以及空间双重差分方法综合考察碳排放权交易试点政策的减排效应。研究发现，就平均效应而言，碳排放权交易试点政策的实施能够有效推动试点地区减少二氧化碳排放量；分析政策的动态影响发现，碳排放权交易试点政策的减排效应存在“倒U型”特征；利用SCM方法进行个案研究发现，试点政策实施后湖北、天津、重庆等省份碳排放量明显减少；而北京、上海、广东等省份减排效果并不理想；进一步将空间溢出效应纳入考量范围分析发现，碳泄漏问题的存在导致试点政策的整体减排效果显著降低。鉴于此，各试点省份应当结合本地实际情况，充分运用市场机制实现低碳发展，加强区域联动以推动协同减排。

关键词: 碳排放权交易试点, 减排效应, PSM-DID, SCM, SDID

Abstract: Based on the panel data of Chinese provinces from 2000 to 2018, this paper comprehensively investigates the emission reduction effects of carbon emission trading pilot policies by using propensity score matching differential method, synthetic control method and spatial differential method. The study finds that in terms of average effect, the implementation of carbon emission trading pilot policy can effectively promote the pilot areas to reduce carbon dioxide emissions. This paper further analyzes the dynamic impact of the policies, and finds that the emission reduction effect of the pilot policies of carbon emission trading has an “inverted U-shaped” feature. This paper also uses SCM method to conduct a case study, and finds that the implementation of pilot policies leads to much less carbon emission in Hubei, Tianjin, Chongqing, etc., but brings little effect in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangdong, etc. Taking the spatial spillover effect into consideration, we find that the existence of carbon leakage leads to a significant decrease in the overall emission reduction effect of the pilot policies. In view of the above findings, the pilot provinces and cities should, on the basis of local actual situation, make full use of the market mechanism to achieve low-carbon development, and strengthen regional linkage to promote coordinated emission reduction.

Key words: carbon emission trading pilot, emission reduction effect, PSM-DID, SCM, SDID

李治国, 车帅, 王军. 中国碳排放权交易试点实施的政策有效性分析——来自PSM-DID与SCM的新证据[J]. 管理评论, 2023, 35(12): 308-318.

Li Zhiguo, Che Shuai, Wang Jun. Analysis of the Effectiveness of Carbon Emission Trading Pilot Policies in China——New Evidence from PSM-DID and SCM[J]. Management Review, 2023, 35(12): 308-318.

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