平台型电商普惠能否提振农村居民消费？——来自中国淘宝村的证据

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 农村是消费增长的新空间，电商是消费提质扩容的新举措。平台型电商普惠的考察需关注生产和消费两端。鉴于现有研究在电商规模统计、理论模型构建、作用机制分析等方面存在欠缺，也未能考察相对消费水平问题，本研究以电商同时影响生产端和消费端为逻辑起点，以“消费替代效应”“消费创造效应”和“消费价格效应”为主线构建理论模型，阐释平台型电商普惠对农村居民消费的提振作用。实证分析部分选取象征电商规模的中国淘宝村作为冲击对象，基于手工搜集整理的淘宝村-CFPS（2012—2018）合并数据集，借助DID模型考察平台型电商普惠是否发挥了农村居民消费提振的作用。结果表明，在有效控制内生性的条件下，平台型电商普惠显著提升了农村居民消费水平。同时发现，第一，平台型电商普惠显著促进了生存型消费尤其是食品支出的“净增长”，且其主要由“消费价格效应”驱动；第二，发展型消费整体上没有呈现出更快增长，尤其是在高收入组群中，其主要由“消费替代效应”引致；第三，受三重效应叠加影响，电商普惠对淘宝村家庭衣着消费的提振作用较为滞后。据此，提出培育消费市场、涵养消费文化、完善保障制度等对策建议。

关键词: 平台型电商普惠, 中国淘宝村, 农村居民消费, 三重效应, DID

Abstract: The rural area is a new space for consumption growth, and e-commerce is a new initiative to improve the quality and expand the capacity of consumption. The examination of platform-based e-commerce inclusion needs to focus on both the production and consumption ends. However, existing studies fail to examine the issue of relative consumption due to a lack of e-commerce scale statistics, theoretical model construction and mechanism analysis. Based on the fact that e-commerce affects both production and consumption, this study constructs a theoretical model that reflects "consumption substitution effect", "consumption creation effect" and "consumption price effect" to explain the boosting effect of platform-based e-commerce inclusiveness on rural residents' consumption. China's Taobao villages are selected as a quasi-natural experiment object for empirical analysis, and then based on the hand-collected Taobao Villages-CFPS (2012-2018) dataset, DID model is used to investigate whether platform-based e-commerce inclusion plays a role in boosting consumption. The results show that platform-based e-commerce inclusion significantly raises the consumption level of residents under the condition of effective control of endogeneity. This paper also gets a lot of other interesting findings. First, platform-based e-commerce inclusion significantly contributes to the growth of subsistence consumption, especially food consumption, which is mainly driven by the "consumer price effect". Second, developmental consumption does not show faster growth overall, especially in the higher income groups, mainly due to the "consumption substitution effect". Third, due to overlapping of the three effects, the boosting effect of e-commerce benefits on clothing consumption of households in Taobao villages lags behind that of households not in Taobao villages. Accordingly, this paper proposes the relevant countermeasures, such as cultivating consumer market, fostering consumer culture and improving social security system.

Key words: e-commerce inclusion, Taobao village, resident consumption, triple effect, DID

刘明辉, 卢飞. 平台型电商普惠能否提振农村居民消费？——来自中国淘宝村的证据[J]. 管理评论, 2023, 35(9): 155-168,193.

Liu Minghui, Lu Fei. Can Platform-based E-commerce Inclusion Drive Consumption? Evidence from Taobao Villages in China[J]. Management Review, 2023, 35(9): 155-168,193.

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