管理评论

管理评论 ›› 2023, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (8): 315-326.

• 公共管理 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于演化博弈的网络舆情“时、度、效”治理研究

王明珠1,2, 刘怡君1,2, 郭林江1,2   

  1. 1. 中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院, 北京 100190;
    2. 中国科学院大学公共政策与管理学院, 北京 100049
  • 收稿日期:2021-11-29 出版日期:2023-08-28 发布日期:2023-10-07
  • 通讯作者: 刘怡君(通讯作者),中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院研究员,中国科学院大学公共政策与管理学院教授,博士生导师,博士
  • 作者简介:王明珠,中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院博士研究生;郭林江,中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院硕士研究生
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金面上项目(72074205)；国家自然科学基金重大项目(T2293772)。

Research on the “Time-Degree-Effect” Governance of Online Public Opinion Based on Evolutionary Game

Wang Mingzhu1,2, Liu Yijun1,2, Guo Linjiang1,2   

  1. 1. Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190;
    2. School of Public Policy and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049
  • Received:2021-11-29 Online:2023-08-28 Published:2023-10-07

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摘要： 时、度、效是网络舆情治理的标准。为探究网络舆情治理"时"和"度"两个方面的相互影响关系,并回答"时"和"度"如何进行组合才能达到网络舆情治理最好的"效"的问题,本文构建以"时"和"度"为主体的演化博弈模型,分析各主体演化路径和最终的演化稳定策略,并进行稳定性分析,最后结合"丰县生育八孩女子"的案例,对舆情治理的"效"进行全谱系仿真。结果表明,"时"和"度"之间存在动态博弈关系,且"时"和"度"会对网络舆情治理的"效"产生不同程度的影响,影响程度的大小由事件性质、博弈收益等因素决定。研究结论对于决策部门开展网络舆情"时、度、效"治理具有借鉴意义。

关键词: 演化博弈, 网络舆情, 时、度、效, 舆情治理

Abstract: "Time-Degree-Effect" is the method and standard for guiding online public opinion. In order to explore the relationship between the "time" and "degree" of online public opinion governance, and answer the question of how to combine "time" with "degree" to achieve the best "effect" of the governance. This paper constructs an evolutionary game model with "time" and "degree" as game players, analyzes the evolution path and the final evolutionary stability strategy of each player, and performs a stability analysis. Finally, a full-spectrum simulation of the "effect" of public opinion governance is conducted with the case of "a woman who gave birth to eight children in Feng County". The results show that there is a dynamic game relationship between "time" and "degree", and "time" and "degree" have different degrees of influence on the "effect" of online public opinion management, the magnitude of the influence is affected by the nature of the event and the benefits of the game. The research conclusions have reference significance for the decision-making departments to carry out the "Time-Degree-Effect" governance of online public opinion.

Key words: evolutionary game, online public opinion, Time-Degree-Effect, public opinion governance