关键词: 税收收入, 经济结构, 宏观税负, 税收浮动率, 税收弹性

Abstract: The relationship between tax revenue and economic growth is fundamental for fiscal policies. The existing researches mainly concentrate on the general macro tax burden or tax buoyancies, while little attention has been paid to the industrial structures and the revenue structures in the economy. This paper studies the mapping between the national economy and the tax revenue based on the social accounting matrix and builds up a general framework to estimate how economic structural change would affect the macro tax burden and tax buoyancies by analyzing how tax revenue participates in the national income circular. Moreover, this paper provides empirical analysis by using China's historical data of tax revenue and economic structures. The results indicate that since the industrial tax rate varies, the economic structural change, especially the share change of industry in the gross domestic product, is the fundamental reason for the change of China's macro tax burden and tax buoyancy. Since the industry share was steady at first and then decreased later on after the 1994 tax reform, the macro tax burden first increased and then decreased, and the tax buoyancy was greater than one at first and then decreased to below one. With China's economic structures continuously changing and the industry share decreasing, it is predicted that if there is no major tax reforms, China's macro tax burden would continue to decrease during the 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-25) time, the tax buoyancy will continue to be below one, and the growth rate of tax revenue will be smaller than the nominal gross domestic product.

Key words: tax revenue, economic structures, macro tax burden, tax buoyancy, tax elasticity